Vietnam Bank Stocks Diverge in 2026: SSB, ABB, STB Lead as NPLs Rise

Overview

Vietnamese bank stocks have split sharply in 2026, with 16 of 27 listed lenders down year-to-date through September 15 while SeABank (SSB, HOSE) leads the sector with a 44.35% gain, according to a TCBS asset-quality report dated September 15. The divergence shows that market-upgrade expectations have not produced a uniform sector rally, and that asset quality is now a stock-specific rather than sector-wide story.

Key Facts

• 16 of 27 bank stocks, or 59.26%, declined year-to-date through the September 15 session.
• SSB led gains at 44.35%, followed by ABB at 35.98% and STB at 31.03%.
• Sector NPL ratio rose to 2.01% in Q2/2026; STB accounted for 77.7% of the total increase in bad debt.
• Excluding STB, the NPL ratio of the remaining 26 banks fell from 2.02% to 1.78%.
• Group-2 debt rose for a second consecutive quarter, reaching 1.38% of outstanding loans.
• Sector loan-loss coverage fell to 78.8% from 79.8% a year earlier, as provisions grew 14.7% versus 16.1% NPL growth.
• Accrued interest and fees receivable rose 36.1% year-on-year to VND 230.7 trillion, equal to 1.50% of loans and roughly double the 17.8% credit growth rate.

What Happened

TCBS published its Banking Sector Asset Quality report on September 15, covering the second quarter of 2026. The report found that the sector NPL ratio climbed to 2.01%, but attributed most of that increase to STB, where legacy loans were reclassified into group 5 rather than reflecting a broad deterioration in newly originated credit. Stripping STB out, the remaining 26 banks saw their NPL ratio decline to 1.78% from 2.02%.

The report also flagged two less visible pressures. Group-2 debt, an early indicator of future bad loans, rose for a second straight quarter to 1.38% of outstanding loans. Meanwhile, the sector’s loan-loss coverage buffer thinned to 78.8% from 79.8% a year earlier because provisions grew more slowly than NPLs. TCBS additionally noted that accrued interest and fees receivable reached VND 230.7 trillion, up 36.1% year-on-year, with some small banks carrying accrued interest equal to 87-202% of full-year operating income.

Market Context

SSB closed at VND 20,900 on September 15, ABB at VND 17,400 and STB at VND 76,000. The three gainers share company-specific catalysts rather than a common sector driver: SSB is tied to expectations of a higher foreign-ownership limit, ABB to index or ETF inclusion, and STB to its own restructuring narrative. SSB trades on HOSE, as does STB, while ABB trades on HNX. The broader pattern is consistent with a Vietnamese market where the FTSE Russell upgrade theme has supported liquidity and foreign-flow expectations but has not lifted all bank stocks equally.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the report reframes Vietnamese bank exposure as a selection problem rather than a beta trade. The market is rewarding lenders with identifiable catalysts, such as foreign-room expansion at SSB, while penalizing those with unresolved balance-sheet issues. The more durable signal sits in group-2 debt and coverage ratios: if early-stage debt continues to migrate into NPLs while loan-loss buffers stay below 80%, provisioning costs will absorb a larger share of pre-provision profit, particularly at smaller banks where accrued interest already represents a large multiple of annual operating income. That dynamic favors lenders that can grow fee income and control credit costs over those relying on balance-sheet expansion.

What to Watch

• Q3/2026 asset-quality disclosures from TCBS and the State Bank of Vietnam, particularly the group-2 ratio and whether it rises for a third consecutive quarter.
• STB’s handling of reclassified group-5 loans and any further legacy-debt recognition.
• Progress on SSB’s foreign-ownership limit expansion and related foreign-investor filings.
• Sector loan-loss coverage: whether LLR stabilizes above 78.8% or continues to erode.
• Accrued interest and fees receivable at small-cap banks, where the ratio to annual operating income is highest.