VCBS Forecasts Q3 Profit Surge in Banking and Oil & Gas; Securities Outlook Weak

Overview

VCBS Research forecasts strong Q3 profit growth for Vietnam’s banking and oil & gas sectors, driven by interest income and energy business activity. For listed energy names, PVS (HNX) and PVD are expected to post revenue growth of 13% and 21% year-on-year respectively, while BSR and PLX benefit from refining margins and fuel demand. The report also flags a weak outlook for securities due to declining market liquidity.

Key Facts

• VCBS Research forecasts Q3 profit growth for banking and oil & gas, with retail and power also supported.
• PVS revenue is projected to rise 13% year-on-year; PVD revenue up 21% year-on-year.
• PVD margins face pressure from incurred costs at Sông Đốc.
• BSR benefits from improved refining margins and disrupted Asian refinery supply.
• PLX is supported by higher petrol prices and increased consumption volume.
• PV GAS gains from higher gas and LNG volumes and improved selling prices.
• Securities sector faces a weak outlook due to declining market liquidity.
• 8M retail sales and consumer service revenue rose 13.3% year-on-year; power output up 9.3% year-on-year.

What Happened

According to VCBS Research’s Q3/2026 business results forecast report, the banking and oil & gas sectors are expected to record positive profit growth, with drivers from interest income and energy business activity respectively. In oil & gas, upstream revenue for PVS and PVD is forecast to increase 13% and 21% year-on-year, though PVD’s margin is pressured by costs at Sông Đốc. BSR benefits from improved refining margins and disrupted Asian refinery supply, while PLX is supported by fuel prices and higher consumption, and PV GAS gains from increased gas and LNG volumes and better selling prices.

For banking, profit growth is expected to continue, mainly from interest income. Banks are accelerating credit disbursement, and net interest margin (NIM) may recover as lending shifts to longer tenors and preferential loans move to floating rates. State-owned and large private banks financing key infrastructure projects are expected to benefit from liquidity support policies. However, rising group 2 debt and bad debt formation rates remain factors to monitor. In retail, domestic purchasing power improved with 8M retail sales and consumer service revenue up 13.3% year-on-year; electronics, technology, and jewelry saw margin improvements, while essential consumer goods faced pressure from promotion and advertising costs. The power sector is supported by higher consumption and selling prices, with 8M system-wide power output up 9.3% year-on-year and full electricity prices up 37% in 7M, boosting generator revenues. Industrial real estate sees continued FDI inflows but a shift toward high-investment, less land-intensive sectors, limiting absorption area growth.

Market Context

PVS (HNX) closed at 31,600 on 2026-09-26, while PVD closed at 18,000, BSR at 30,400, and PLX at 35,000. The oil & gas sector has been sensitive to global energy prices and project progress. The broader Vietnamese market has seen mixed sector performance, with banking stocks often leading on credit growth expectations. Securities stocks have underperformed amid lower liquidity, consistent with VCBS’s cautious view.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the VCBS report highlights a divergence in sector fundamentals. Oil & gas names like PVS and PVD offer exposure to Vietnam’s upstream energy expansion, with PVS’s PTSC subsidiary well-positioned for offshore wind and LNG infrastructure. BSR and PLX provide downstream leverage to refining margins and fuel demand. Banks, particularly state-owned ones, benefit from policy support and infrastructure financing, though asset quality risks persist. The weak securities outlook suggests liquidity-sensitive brokers may lag until market turnover recovers. Retail and power offer defensive growth, but margin pressures in staples and inflation warrant selectivity.

What to Watch

• Q3 earnings releases for PVS, PVD, BSR, PLX, and PV GAS, expected in October 2026.
• Monthly credit growth and NIM trends from the State Bank of Vietnam.
• Refining margin indicators and Asian supply disruptions affecting BSR.
• Market liquidity metrics (daily turnover) for securities sector recovery.
• FDI disbursement data and industrial park absorption rates for real estate.