PNJ Cuts 2026 Guidance to a VND 6,271B Loss, Halves Dividend

Overview

PNJ (HOSE), the Phú Nhuận Jewelry Joint Stock Company, has proposed cutting its 2026 revenue target to VND 39,057 billion and swinging from a planned VND 3,409 billion profit to a projected loss of VND 6,271 billion, driven by a VND 7,071 billion provision linked to its product buy-back policy. The proposal, contained in documents for an extraordinary general meeting scheduled for 21 October, also halves the 2025 cash dividend to 10% and removes the 2026 cash dividend. PNJ shares fell limit-down to VND 30,700 on 28 September, the lowest level in nearly six years.

Key Facts

• 2026 revenue target cut from VND 48,660 billion to VND 39,057 billion.
• 2026 net profit plan reversed from a VND 3,409 billion gain to a VND 6,271 billion loss.
• Provision of VND 7,071 billion tied to the policy of buying back previously sold products; excluding it, PNJ still expects roughly VND 801 billion in profit, about 77% below the original plan.
• July-August 2026 net revenue of VND 5,695 billion (+4.5% year on year) with a net loss of VND 61 billion, versus a VND 325 billion profit a year earlier; gross margin fell from about 18.5% to 10%.
• 2025 cash dividend cut from 20% to 10%; no cash dividend planned for 2026.
• 25-30 store closures planned for 2026 alongside about 10 new openings.
• A loan from the family of Chairwoman Cao Thị Ngọc Dung has been partially disbursed at roughly VND 700 billion for working capital and raw-material stocking.

What Happened

Selling pressure continued to hammer PNJ on 28 September, with the stock closing limit-down at VND 30,700, breaking the July low and returning to a price zone last seen in late October 2020. Market capitalization shrank to roughly VND 15,700 billion. About 27 million shares, equal to 5.3% of shares outstanding, remained queued at the floor price into the close, while matched volume reached only just over 2 million units. From the March peak, the share price has fallen approximately 65%.

The negative price action followed a batch of disclosures on business conditions and restructuring plans. According to documents prepared for the extraordinary general meeting expected on 21 October, the company proposes adjusting its 2026 revenue target down from VND 48,660 billion to VND 39,057 billion, with after-tax profit moving from a VND 3,409 billion gain to a projected VND 6,271 billion loss. The main cause is the VND 7,071 billion provision related to the buy-back policy for products already sold. The filing notes this is a proposed adjustment for shareholders to consider, not actual full-year results. Recent trading also reflects the difficulties: in July-August 2026, PNJ recorded net revenue of VND 5,695 billion, up 4.5% year on year, but a net loss of VND 61 billion, against a VND 325 billion profit in the same period last year, with gross margin falling from about 18.5% to 10% amid an unfavorable diamond market and seasonal demand weakness.

Market Context

PNJ trades on HOSE and closed at VND 30,700 on 28 September 2026, a near six-year low and roughly 65% below its March peak. The sell-off came on heavy floor-price queuing rather than matched volume, indicating that demand has not yet absorbed supply. The revenue mix has also shifted: retail revenue fell 1.5% while wholesale revenue rose 78%, lifting its contribution from 11.7% to 20.4%, while 24K gold revenue dropped nearly 25% year on year. The company said its current financial resources remain sufficient to meet planned obligations and that it continues to manage cash flow, working capital and funding sources tightly.

Strategic Significance

The provision is the crux of the investment case. It stems from PNJ’s buy-back policy on previously sold products, a customer-trust mechanism that now carries a VND 7,071 billion balance-sheet cost. Excluding it, the company still expects only about VND 801 billion in profit, roughly 77% below the original 2026 plan, which suggests the underlying retail jewelry business is also under pressure from weak diamond pricing and soft discretionary demand. The simultaneous cut to the 2025 dividend and the removal of the 2026 payout signal that management is prioritizing liquidity and raw-material funding over shareholder returns, reinforced by the partial VND 700 billion disbursement from the chairwoman’s family loan. The planned closure of 25-30 stores against about 10 openings marks a shift from expansion to network rationalization, and the wholesale mix shift raises questions about margin quality going forward.

What to Watch

• The extraordinary general meeting on 21 October and whether shareholders approve the revised 2026 targets and dividend cuts.
• Further disclosure on the VND 7,071 billion provision: its accounting basis, timing and any reversal potential.
• Third-quarter and full-year 2026 results for evidence on whether the July-August gross margin decline to 10% persists.
• Progress on the remaining portion of the chairwoman’s family loan and the planned additional fundraising of about VND 8.0 trillion.
• Store closure execution and any update on diamond market pricing and consumer demand trends.