Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Supply Surges 133% as Legal Hurdles Cleared, Novaland Benefits

Overview

Ho Chi Minh City has completed legal resolution for 100% of its backlogged real estate projects, unlocking 17,000 hectares of land and mobilizing over 206,000 billion VND in social investment. This has triggered a supply surge, with 37 projects approved for future home sales totaling 21,165 units, a 133% increase from the full year 2025. Novaland (NVL), a key developer, is accelerating construction of its Grand Manhattan project in District 1, with handover expected from Q3 2026.

Key Facts

• HCMC resolved legal issues for 100% of 838 backlogged projects, unlocking 17,000 hectares of land.
• Over 206,000 billion VND in social investment has been mobilized through these resolutions.
• 37 projects are now approved for future home sales, offering 21,165 units, up 133% from 2025’s 9,075 units.
• Apartments account for nearly 80% of supply, with 30 projects; large-scale ones include The Gio Riverside (2,905 units), Bcons Solary (1,451 units), and Metro Star (1,177 units).
• Novaland’s Grand Manhattan project in District 1 is in final construction phase, with handover from Q3 2026 at an expected price of 350 million VND/m2.
• Absorption rate is expected at 50-60% for well-located, legally clear projects with appropriate pricing.
• Social housing project Eco Home 1 offers 340 units at 19.8 million VND/m2.

What Happened

According to a report from the Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee, the city has completed legal resolution and issued handling directions for all 838 backlogged real estate projects. This effort has freed approximately 17,000 hectares of land and mobilized over 206,000 billion VND in social investment. The move follows years of legal bottlenecks that stalled many high-profile developments.

Notably, Novaland’s Grand Manhattan project, located on Co Bac and Co Giang streets in District 1, is now in its final construction phase. A Novaland representative told Tuoi Tre newspaper that the government’s decisive action on legal issues has helped the company efficiently utilize land resources, unlock capital, and accelerate construction to hand over units to customers. The developer expects to deliver units from Q3 2026 at around 350 million VND/m2. Separately, the Saigon LightHouse project on Nguyen Tat Thanh Street recently broke ground after nearly a decade of legal delays.

Market Context

Novaland (NVL) closed at 12,950 VND on July 26, 2026, on the HOSE exchange. The stock has been under pressure due to the company’s high debt levels and slow project progress. The broader HCMC real estate market has seen a recovery in sentiment as legal clarity improves, but absorption remains constrained by high interest rates and buyer caution. The supply surge, while positive for market activity, may also intensify competition among developers.

Strategic Significance

For Novaland, the legal resolution of its Grand Manhattan project is a critical step in restoring cash flow and investor confidence. The project’s handover from Q3 2026 will generate revenue and reduce inventory. More broadly, the clearing of legal bottlenecks across HCMC signals a structural improvement in the operating environment for real estate developers, potentially unlocking value from land banks and enabling new project launches. However, the market’s ability to absorb the increased supply will depend on pricing, financing conditions, and buyer sentiment.

What to Watch

• Novaland’s Q3 2026 earnings release, which should reflect initial handover revenue from Grand Manhattan.
• Absorption rates for new projects in HCMC, particularly for mid-range and affordable segments.
• Interest rate trends and mortgage availability, which will influence buyer demand.
• Further legal resolutions for other stalled Novaland projects, such as those in Binh Thuan and Dong Nai.
• Policy changes regarding land price tables and their impact on project costs and pricing.