Over 40% of Vietnam Industrial Zone Stocks Still Below Pre-Tariff Shock Levels After One Year

Overview

One year after the April 2025 tariff shock, over 40% of monitored industrial zone (IZ) stocks on HOSE, HNX, and UPCOM have not recovered their pre-shock prices. The sector shows stark divergence: some stocks like TAL, TIX, and KBC have posted double-digit gains, while others such as NTC, BCM, and SZC remain deeply in the red. The uneven recovery reflects lingering investor caution and a wait-and-see approach toward new FDI commitments.

Key Facts

• As of the April 20, 2026 close, over 40% of monitored IZ stocks remain below their April 2, 2025 pre-shock closing prices.
• NTC has fallen 34.82% from its pre-shock level, the steepest decline among tracked names.
• MH3 (-34%), SZC (-28.38%), and BCM (-25.04%) also show losses exceeding 20%.
• TAL has surged 67.3% over the same period, the strongest gainer in the sector.
• KBC rose 18.81% and VPBankS Securities bought 1.15 million KBC shares, raising its stake to 5.044% and becoming a major shareholder.
• GVR gained only 6.2%, reflecting a “price-anchored” state rather than a breakout.
• FDI registered capital in Q1 2026 reached USD 15.2 billion, up 42.9% year-on-year, while disbursed FDI in Q1 was USD 5.4 billion (+9.1% YoY).

What Happened

According to a market analysis published in late April 2026, one year after the U.S. tariff shock of April 2025, the recovery among Vietnamese industrial zone stocks has been highly uneven. The article, citing data through the April 20 close, reports that more than 40% of tracked IZ stocks have failed to regain their pre-shock price levels. The hardest-hit names include NTC, MH3, SZC, and BCM, each down more than 20% from the April 2, 2025 close.

In contrast, a handful of stocks have outperformed. TAL has risen 67.3%, TIX gained 20%, and KBC added 18.81%. The article notes that VPBankS Securities recently acquired 1.15 million KBC shares, lifting its ownership to 5.044% and making it a major shareholder. Meanwhile, GVR, the sector’s largest-cap name, managed only a 6.2% gain, suggesting limited buying interest.

Market Context

On HOSE, BCM closed at VND 56 on April 10, 2026, up 0.54% with thin volume of 433,800 shares. SZC, also on HOSE, closed at VND 29, up 0.35% on volume of 534,000 shares. These price levels remain well below their pre-shock highs. The broader IZ sector has been under pressure since the tariff shock, with foreign investor sentiment mixed. Despite strong FDI inflows in Q1 2026, the market has not fully priced in the long-term benefits, as geopolitical uncertainties and U.S. policy risks persist.

Strategic Significance

The uneven recovery underscores that the IZ sector’s performance is increasingly stock-specific rather than sector-wide. Companies with clean land banks, signed MOUs with tenants, and strong financials are better positioned to attract capital. The establishment of the Investment Support Fund and special procedures for strategic IZ projects signal government commitment to maintaining Vietnam’s competitive edge. However, the market is differentiating between names with visible near-term catalysts and those still digesting the tariff impact.

What to Watch

• Q2 2026 earnings reports from NTC, BCM, and SZC for signs of operational recovery.
• Further foreign ownership filings, especially for KBC, as VPBankS Securities increases its stake.
• Announcements of new FDI projects from South Korean companies expected to visit Vietnam in late April 2026.
• Policy developments from the U.S. regarding tariff adjustments that could affect the IZ sector’s outlook.
• Land lease revenue and occupancy rate updates from major IZ developers in their quarterly business updates.