Vietnam Market Breadth: 334 Stocks Below COVID-19 Troughs, KOS Breaks Down

Overview

After the final trading session of September 2026, 334 Vietnamese listed stocks, more than 21% of the roughly 1,600 tickers across the three exchanges, closed below their 31 March 2020 COVID-19 trough prices. The breadth reading lands in the same year Vietnam was upgraded by FTSE Russell, which published 27 qualifying stocks for FTSE GEIS inclusion from 21 September. KOSY (KOS, HOSE) is the most recent name to break that floor, while NVL carries an additional overhang from a large planned share issuance.

Key Facts

• 334 tickers, over 21% of listed stocks on the three exchanges, closed below their 31 March 2020 COVID-19 trough as of the 30 September 2026 session.
• KOSY (KOS) traded roughly 15.49% below its COVID-19 trough price after consecutive limit-down sessions.
• NVL faces an ex-rights date of 30 September 2026 tied to a planned offering of nearly 800.7 million shares to existing shareholders.
• FTSE Russell published a list of 27 Vietnamese stocks meeting FTSE GEIS criteria, effective from 21 September 2026.
• Fewer than 30% of HOSE-listed stocks are in a long-term uptrend, per the same breadth statistics.
• NVL, CII, TTF, HNG, HPX and YEG remain at significant distances below their COVID-19 era prices.
• The State Bank of Vietnam allowed credit institutions to exclude certain hospitality, resort and eco-tourism loan growth from real estate credit growth calculations in mid-September 2026.

What Happened

The breadth statistics, compiled after the 30 September close, show a market split into two tracks despite the upgrade narrative. FTSE Russell’s September announcement named 27 Vietnamese stocks eligible for FTSE GEIS from 21 September, but the majority of listed names have not participated. KOSY is the clearest recent example: the HOSE-listed real estate company fell through its COVID-19 floor and sits about 15.49% below it, a move the article attributes to forced selling rather than broad index weakness.

The article argues that margin liquidation is no longer confined to market-wide drawdowns. Even with headline indices rising, high leverage combined with higher interest rates and constrained financial capacity among some large shareholders can trigger localized selling pressure in individual tickers. NVL is highlighted as a long-standing case, still deeply discounted after its 2022 decline, with fresh pressure arriving immediately before the 30 September ex-rights date for the offering of nearly 800.7 million shares to existing holders. The article does not disclose the expected proceeds of that issuance.

Market Context

KOSY (KOS) trades on HOSE and closed at 15,800 on 1 October 2026, after the limit-down sequence described in the article. NVL closed at 10 on 2 October 2026, down 0.96% on volume of 8,946,100 shares, with the ex-rights date already passed. CII closed at 12,250 and TTF at 1,500 on 1 October 2026, both well below their COVID-era levels. The divergence sits against a Vietnamese market where the FTSE upgrade has drawn foreign-flow attention but domestic liquidity remains the binding constraint.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the relevant signal is that index inclusion and market breadth have decoupled. The upgrade expands the investable universe for passive foreign funds, but it does not repair balance sheets at leveraged real estate and securities names. KOSY’s break below the COVID-19 floor suggests the market is repricing shareholder structure and leverage risk rather than sector earnings alone. The State Bank of Vietnam’s mid-September move to exclude certain hospitality and resort loan growth from real estate credit growth calculations is a targeted attempt to redirect credit, but it does not address the margin-financing channel that the article identifies as the driver of single-stock liquidations. The practical implication is that breadth, not the index level, is the better gauge of where capital is actually flowing.

What to Watch

• October 2026 monthly breadth statistics to see whether the 334-ticker count expands or contracts.
• NVL’s post-issuance shareholder register and any foreign-ownership filing following the 800.7 million share offering.
• KOSY disclosures on shareholder margin positions or any restructuring of large-holder debt.
• State Bank of Vietnam credit growth data for real estate and hospitality lending in Q4 2026.
• FTSE GEIS rebalancing flows around the 21 September 2026 effective date and subsequent index reviews.