HCMC Real Estate Q2 2026: Supply Up, Demand Weak, Villa Prices Down 10%

Overview

Savills Vietnam’s Q2 2026 report on HCMC real estate shows improved supply but persistently weak demand, with villa and townhouse prices dropping 10% quarter-on-quarter. New apartment supply is concentrated in the high-end segment, and high mortgage rates continue to dampen buyer sentiment. This affects listed developers like Nhà Khang Điền (KDH) on HOSE, which is preparing a large project in HCMC.

Key Facts

• New apartment supply in HCMC reached 1,800 units in Q2 2026, with 3,700 units from 7 new projects in H1 2026.
• Average mortgage rate for homebuyers stood at approximately 13% in Q2 2026, up 4 percentage points year-on-year.
• Market absorption rate fell to 32%, equivalent to over 1,500 transactions.
• 80% of new apartment units were priced above VND 120 million/m² (usable area).
• Villa and townhouse prices decreased 10% quarter-on-quarter.
• New landed property supply reached 1,600 units, mainly from one large urban project in the suburbs.
• About 10,000 new apartments are expected to launch in H2 2026; cumulative future supply by 2029 is projected at 70,000 units.

What Happened

According to Savills Vietnam’s Q2 2026 market report, HCMC’s real estate market saw improved supply but continued weak demand. Cao Thị Thanh Hương, Deputy Director of Research & S22M at Savills HCMC, noted that new apartment launches were primarily in grades A and B, with prices above VND 90 million/m², and 80% exceeding VND 120 million/m². This indicates a growing affordability gap as the market shifts toward high-end products.

The report highlights that high mortgage rates, averaging around 13%, have dampened buyer sentiment. Despite developers offering interest rate support for the first 1-2 years and fixed-rate loans around 10%, these incentives have not been sufficient to boost market confidence. In the landed property segment, villa and townhouse prices fell 10% quarter-on-quarter, with new supply mainly from a single large urban project in the suburbs.

Market Context

KDH closed at VND 17,400 on August 19, 2026, on HOSE. The company recently established a subsidiary with VND 2,500 billion charter capital to develop a project worth nearly VND 16,400 billion in HCMC, including a 35-story condominium. The Savills report suggests that while supply is improving, the high-end focus and weak demand could challenge sales for developers like KDH. The broader HCMC market remains cautious, with absorption rates low and prices under pressure in certain segments.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the Savills report underscores a structural shift toward high-end products in HCMC’s apartment market, which may limit volume growth but could support margins for developers with land banks in prime locations. KDH’s new project, with its mix of high-rise and landed products, aligns with this trend. However, the persistent high interest rate environment and weak buyer sentiment pose near-term risks. Developers with strong financial capacity and competitive sales policies may gain market share as smaller players struggle.

What to Watch

• KDH’s Q3 2026 sales performance and any pre-sales announcements for its new project.
• Movement in HCMC mortgage rates and any policy changes by the State Bank of Vietnam.
• Absorption rates for new apartment launches in H2 2026, particularly in the high-end segment.
• Further price adjustments in the villa/townhouse segment, especially in suburban areas.
• Regulatory updates on land and housing projects that could affect supply timelines.