HPG Below MA200 for Five Months: Vietnam Steel Sector Loses Uptrend

Overview

Hòa Phát’s HPG shares have remained below their 200-day moving average for nearly five months, and the broader Vietnamese steel sector shows the same pattern, with only TVN of Tổng Công ty Thép Việt Nam still holding a long-term uptrend. The divergence matters because brokerages simultaneously forecast improving Q3/2026 earnings for the group, leaving investors to weigh price momentum against fundamental expectations.

Key Facts

• HPG has traded below its MA200 for nearly five months, since early May 2026, and closed at VND 20,700 on 12/10.
• NKG of Thép Nam Kim has been below MA200 for almost eight months; HSG of Hoa Sen Group for nearly one year.
• Of nine listed steel stocks tracked, only TVN retains a long-term uptrend, a breadth ratio of 11.1%.
• Year-to-date in 2026, HPG is down 12.17%, HSG down 15.39%, and NKG down 26.44%.
• VPBankS forecasts HPG Q3/2026 after-tax profit of VND 5,582 billion, up 39.1% year on year.
• Hoa Sen’s Q4 FY2025-2026 after-tax profit is projected at VND 115 billion (+30.4%); Nam Kim at VND 60 billion (+21.1%).
• MBS forecasts domestic steel consumption of 7.68 million tonnes in Q3/2026, up 20% year on year, with construction steel up 26% and HRC up 35%.

What Happened

The article, citing brokerage research from VPBankS and MBS, notes that steel equities have decoupled from their operating outlook. While domestic demand remains high and coated-steel producers seek new export markets, most sector stocks have failed to reclaim their long-term uptrends. HPG’s slide below MA200 began in early May 2026 and has persisted through the 12/10 session, even after a positive trading day.

VPBankS attributes expected Q3/2026 profit growth mainly to improved consumption volumes. For HPG, the projected VND 5,582 billion after-tax profit represents 39.1% year-on-year growth. MBS expects domestic steel consumption of 7.68 million tonnes, up 20%, with construction steel and hot-rolled coil (HRC) volumes rising 26% and 35% respectively. Anti-dumping duties on wide-gauge HRC are expected to lift domestic market share above 70%, from about 60% in 2025, while Chinese steel imports have fallen more than 10% year on year.

Market Context

HPG trades on HOSE at VND 20,700 as of 12/10, down 12.17% year to date, while HSG on HOSE sits at VND 10,250 (-15.39%) and NKG at VND 9,930 (-26.44%). TVN, at VND 9,800, is the sole steel name above its MA200. The weak breadth comes despite market-wide optimism around Vietnam’s potential FTSE Russell upgrade and the public-investment and infrastructure themes that are typically cited as steel demand drivers.

Strategic Significance

The core tension is between a cyclical earnings recovery and a market that has already stopped paying for it. If MBS’s 20% volume growth and the HRC anti-dumping protection materialize, HPG’s integrated model, from ore to finished steel, and its Dung Quất complex give it the most direct leverage to domestic construction and infrastructure demand. The risk is that margin gains prove temporary if Chinese imports resume or if property construction stays subdued, which would leave the sector’s earnings upgrade without a re-rating. TVN’s relative strength suggests investors are favoring a narrower, less leveraged exposure within the same theme.

What to Watch

• HPG’s Q3/2026 earnings release and whether after-tax profit approaches the VND 5,582 billion VPBankS forecast.
• Monthly steel consumption data and HRC import volumes from China for confirmation of the 20% volume growth thesis.
• Final implementation and enforcement details of the wide-gauge HRC anti-dumping duty and its effect on domestic market share.
• Whether HPG reclaims its MA200, a level it has not held since early May 2026.
• Foreign-ownership and block-trade filings in HPG, HSG and NKG as a gauge of institutional positioning.