HPA shares drop 28% since IPO as H1 profit falls 31%
This Aveluro analysis covers HPA on HOSE in the Food & Beverage sector. The classified event type is earnings miss, with negative sentiment and a deterministic market-impact score of 8.4/10. Aveluro classifies this story as a negative catalyst and risk signal for the affected stock. Source coverage came from CafeF - Doanh nghiệp, classified as a primary/top-tier source.
Key Facts
Caveat: Not investment advice. · How Aveluro computed this: Aveluro combines extracted event facts, source credibility, ticker context, and market data. Scores are deterministic research signals, not recommendations.
Overview
HPA, the agricultural arm of Hòa Phát Group, has seen its shares decline 28% since listing on HOSE in February 2026. The company reported H1 2026 revenue of VND 3,287 billion and net profit of VND 648 billion, down 22% and 31% year-on-year respectively. The weak earnings and persistent share-price slide underscore challenges in Vietnam’s livestock sector.
Key Facts
- HPA shares closed at VND 30,000 on August 12, 2026, down 1.6% for the session and marking a fourth consecutive decline.
- The stock has fallen over 28% from its first-day reference price of VND 41,900 on February 6, 2026.
- HPA hit its all-time high of VND 45,000 on its first trading day.
- Q2 2026 net revenue was VND 1,523 billion, down 32% YoY; net profit was VND 303 billion, down 43% YoY.
- H1 2026 net revenue reached VND 3,287 billion and net profit VND 648 billion, down 22% and 31% YoY.
- The company’s 2026 plan targets revenue of VND 7,200 billion and net profit of VND 1,005 billion, down 11% and 37% from 2025.
- MBS forecasts 2026 revenue to decline 9% YoY, with hog prices expected to fall 2% to VND 62,700/kg.
What Happened
HPA (Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Nông nghiệp Hòa Phát) listed on HOSE on February 6, 2026, at a reference price of VND 41,900. The stock peaked at VND 45,000 on its first day but has since trended downward, setting new lows. As of August 12, 2026, it closed at VND 30,000, down 28% from the reference price.
The company’s Q2 2026 financial report shows a sharp decline in both revenue and profit. Management attributed the drop to lower sales volumes in cattle and pig segments, as the company deliberately reduced cattle herd size due to supply difficulties and retained some breeding pigs to expand the herd.
For 2026, HPA set a conservative plan, anticipating revenue of VND 7,200 billion and net profit of VND 1,005 billion, down 11% and 37% from the previous year. Management cited risks including Middle East conflict, disease, natural disasters, regional border tensions, and expected higher interest rates.
Market Context
HPA’s decline is steeper than that of peers listed around the same time: GEL is down 10%, VPX down 24%, and VCK down 3% from their first-day reference prices. The broader market has also weakened, but HPA’s underperformance reflects company-specific factors. The stock’s liquidity has thinned since listing, and it continues to make new lows. HPA trades on HOSE under the food & beverage sector.
Strategic Significance
HPA’s strategy of adjusting herd sizes and retaining breeding stock is a response to near-term supply and cost pressures, but it weighs on current earnings. The company’s heavy reliance on imported feed ingredients (about 75%) exposes it to global grain price volatility. The expansion of farms like Long Hà 2 and Minh Đức is expected to support revenue growth of 10% in 2027, but near-term profitability remains under pressure. Investors should assess whether the current valuation reflects the cyclical trough or if further downside exists.
What to Watch
- Q3 2026 earnings release (expected October 2026) for signs of volume recovery.
- Hog price trends in Vietnam, particularly whether prices stabilize above VND 62,700/kg.
- Progress on Long Hà 2 and Minh Đức farm capacity ramp-up.
- Feed ingredient cost movements, especially corn and soybean prices.
- Any changes to the 2026 guidance or management commentary on the second half.