HSC Sees 15% 2026 Bank Profit Growth, Favors Low-Cost HDB
This Aveluro analysis covers HDB (HDBank) on HOSE in the Banks sector. The classified event type is sector sentiment, with mixed sentiment and a deterministic market-impact score of 4.0/10. Source coverage came from CafeF - Tài chính ngân hàng, classified as a primary/top-tier source.
Key Facts
Caveat: Not investment advice. · How Aveluro computed this: Aveluro combines extracted event facts, source credibility, ticker context, and market data. Scores are deterministic research signals, not recommendations.
Overview
HSC Securities maintains its 15% profit growth forecast for Vietnam’s banking sector in 2026, but warns that net interest margins (NIM) will be hard to expand in the second half. With funding costs still high and asset quality risks rising, the broker sees advantages shifting to large banks with low funding costs and credit headroom, such as HDBank (HDB).
Key Facts
- HSC forecasts 15% profit growth for the banking sector in 2026.
- NIM is expected to be difficult to expand in H2 2026, with possible slight downward pressure.
- Official non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for tracked banks is around 2%, up slightly from Q1 2026 and Q4 2025.
- New NPL formation and group 2 debt are showing an upward trend.
- Provisioning in H1 2026 has not kept pace with new NPL formation.
- The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) requires commercial banks to reduce lending rates to support the economy.
- SBV measures include counting 50% of KBNN term deposits in the LDR ratio and excluding social housing and industrial park credit from real estate credit growth caps.
What Happened
At a talk show titled “HDBank: Ready for a New Growth Cycle” organized by HSC Securities on August 18, Phạm Liên Hà, Senior Research Director for Financial Services at HSC, presented the firm’s outlook for the banking sector. She highlighted that strong credit demand remains the main driver of income growth for banks, alongside fee income from services such as corporate bond issuance.
However, HSC noted several pressures: liquidity remains tight, funding costs are high, and banks are being asked to cut lending rates to support the economy, particularly state-owned banks. HSC expects NIM to be difficult to expand in the second half of 2026, though it may hold at Q2 levels. Asset quality is a growing concern, with NPLs and provisioning beginning to rise, especially in real estate.
Market Context
HDBank (HDB) trades on HOSE and closed at VND 26,700 on August 19, 2026. The banking sector has been supported by strong credit demand, but investors are increasingly focused on NIM trends and asset quality. HSC’s view that large banks with low funding costs and diversified business models will outperform aligns with HDB’s positioning as a retail-focused bank with international funding access.
Strategic Significance
For long-term investors, HSC’s analysis underscores the importance of funding cost advantage and credit headroom in the current environment. Banks like HDB that can maintain NIM despite rate cuts and manage asset quality proactively are better positioned to deliver sustainable profit growth. The shift in asset quality from “stable” to “increasing risk” suggests that provisioning discipline will be a key differentiator.
What to Watch
- HDB’s Q3 2026 earnings release for NIM and NPL trends.
- SBV policy updates on lending rate cuts and credit growth limits.
- Changes in group 2 debt and new NPL formation across the sector.
- HDB’s provisioning levels relative to new NPL formation.
- Any further regulatory measures to support liquidity, such as KBNN deposit treatment.