Vietnam Fertilizer Prices Rise Again, Pressuring Farmers and Boosting DPM, DCM

Overview

Fertilizer prices in Vietnam have risen for the second time this year, driven by global market trends, Middle East tensions, and higher logistics costs. The increase puts pressure on farmers’ production costs while potentially benefiting listed fertilizer producers such as DPM, DCM, BFC, and LAS.

Key Facts

• Domestic fertilizer prices increased for the second time in 2025, following a 5-11% hike in March due to Middle East tensions.
• In southern Vietnam, DAP from China rose to VND 1.02 million per 50-kg bag, up nearly VND 94,000 month-on-month; Korean DAP reached VND 1.32 million per bag, up over VND 116,000.
• Urea from China increased nearly VND 78,000 to about VND 633,000 per bag, while Phu My urea rose VND 80,000 to nearly VND 700,000 per bag.
• International logistics costs have risen 20-30%, with domestic transport costs up 15-20% and showing no signs of cooling.
• In the first five months of 2025, average import prices reached nearly USD 335 per ton, up 5.7% year-on-year, despite a 24% drop in import volume.
• Global fertilizer prices remain elevated: urea up 27%, DAP up 14%, MAP up 15%, and anhydrous ammonia up 44% year-on-year.
• Demand is strong as the Mekong Delta enters the summer-autumn rice season and the Central Highlands prepares for durian, coffee, and pepper harvests.

What Happened

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, fertilizer prices in Vietnam have risen for the second time in 2025, with significant increases across major products. In the southern region, DAP from China and Korea saw substantial month-on-month gains, while urea and NPK blends also rose. Northern regions experienced milder increases of 1-3%.

The price hikes are attributed to global market dynamics, ongoing Middle East conflicts pushing up oil and input costs, and a 20-30% rise in international logistics costs. Domestic transport costs have also increased 15-20%. Despite a 24% drop in import volume, average import prices rose 5.7% year-on-year in the first five months, with China remaining the largest supplier at 45.5% market share.

Market Context

On June 5, 2026, DPM closed at VND 25,100 (-0.59%) on HOSE, DCM at VND 38,700 (-0.90%) on HOSE, BFC at VND 57,000 (-0.52%) on HOSE, and LAS at VND 15,000 (unchanged) on HNX. The fertilizer sector has been under pressure from rising input costs, but the current price increases could improve margins for producers. However, the broader agricultural sector faces headwinds as farmers struggle with low output prices for rice, fruits, and other crops.

Strategic Significance

For listed fertilizer producers like DPM (Petrovietnam Fertilizer and Chemicals Corporation) and DCM (Ca Mau Fertilizer), higher domestic prices directly boost revenue and margins, especially given their cost-plus pricing models. The sustained global price elevation and supply chain disruptions provide a supportive backdrop. However, the risk lies in demand destruction: if farmers’ profitability deteriorates further, they may reduce fertilizer application, potentially capping volume growth. The sector’s outlook hinges on the balance between global cost trends and domestic agricultural income.

What to Watch

• Q2 2025 earnings reports from DPM, DCM, BFC, and LAS for margin and volume trends.
• Global fertilizer price indices (urea, DAP, MAP) and crude oil movements.
• Government or SBV measures to support farmers, such as subsidies or credit programs.
• Import data for the next quarter to gauge demand elasticity.
• Updates on Middle East tensions and logistics cost developments.