Vietnam Fertilizer Export Tax Cut: DCM, DPM Stand to Gain Most

Overview

Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance has proposed cutting the export tax on urea, superphosphate and potassium sulphate (SOP) from 5% to 0%, a measure MB Securities (MBS) says would directly benefit HOSE-listed urea exporters Đạm Cà Mau (DCM) and Đạm Phú Mỹ (DPM). MBS estimates annual savings of roughly VND203bn for DCM and VND93bn for DPM, while Lasuco (LAS) sees only a limited effect. The proposal has not completed its issuance process, so the effective date remains unknown.

Key Facts

• Ministry of Finance proposal: export tax on urea, superphosphate and SOP cut from 5% to 0%.
• DCM estimated annual saving: ~VND203bn, equal to 9.2% of 2025 pre-tax profit.
• DPM estimated annual saving: ~VND93bn, equal to 6.9% of 2025 pre-tax profit.
• DCM urea export share: ~59.7% of total sales volume in the first eight months of 2026.
• DPM urea export share: ~36% of sales volume in the first half of 2026.
• LAS owns an SOP line with capacity of about 20,000 tonnes per year; export scale is not yet material to consolidated profit.
• DDV is excluded from direct benefit because its main product is DAP, which is not among the three taxed items.

What Happened

In a research report, MBS assessed the impact of the Ministry of Finance’s draft proposal to remove the 5% export tax on urea, superphosphate and SOP. The broker said the policy would support the fertilizer sector broadly but would differentiate sharply between companies: those with a high urea export weighting gain directly, while NPK-focused producers could face pressure if domestic urea input prices rise as supply is redirected to export markets. MBS cautioned that the policy still needs to complete its issuance process, so the effective date is undetermined and the full tax benefit should not yet be built into earnings forecasts.

For DCM, MBS calculated savings of about VND203bn per year, equivalent to 9.2% of 2025 pre-tax profit, citing a urea export share of roughly 59.7% of total sales in the first eight months of 2026. DPM’s saving is estimated at about VND93bn per year, or 6.9% of 2025 pre-tax profit, with urea exports at about 36% of sales in the first half of 2026. MBS flagged risks including weaker international urea prices and the possibility that part of the tax benefit is passed to customers through lower selling prices. For LAS, the broker described the impact as positive but limited, given superphosphate production and an SOP line of about 20,000 tonnes per year that is not yet large enough to move consolidated profit.

Market Context

DCM closed at VND33,850 on 19 October 2026, with DPM at VND21,250 and LAS at VND11,600. The three tickers span the fertilizer and chemicals segment of the Vietnamese market, where earnings are sensitive to urea price cycles, gas input costs and export volumes. DCM and DPM are among the larger capitalized names in the group, and their export ratios make them the most direct transmission channels for any change in export tax policy. The proposal arrives against a backdrop of excess domestic urea capacity relative to local demand, a condition MBS said could ease if export conditions improve.

Strategic Significance

The strategic case rests on export competitiveness rather than a one-off earnings uplift. A zero export tax widens the net realized price on every tonne shipped abroad, which matters most for DCM given its near-60% export weighting, and allows Vietnamese urea to compete more aggressively in regional markets. It also offers a route to absorb surplus capacity that would otherwise pressure domestic inventory and pricing. The offsetting dynamic is internal: if urea flows abroad, domestic supply tightens and NPK producers such as BFC could face higher input costs. For investors, the key question is how much of the tax saving is retained versus passed through to buyers, which determines whether the estimated VND203bn and VND93bn figures reach the income statement.

What to Watch

• Formal issuance of the amended export tax schedule and its stated effective date.
• DCM and DPM quarterly disclosures of urea export volume and realized export prices.
• International urea price benchmarks, which MBS cites as a key offsetting risk.
• Domestic urea prices and any margin pressure at NPK producers such as BFC.
• LAS disclosures on actual SOP commercial volumes before any forecast revision.