Vietnam Banks: Foreign Investors Net Sell VND 37,500B as Q3 Profit Forecasts Diverge

Overview

Foreign investors have net sold VND 37,500 billion (approximately USD 1.5 billion) of Vietnamese banking stocks since the start of 2026, according to market flow data. The outflow coincides with Q3/2026 earnings forecasts for 11 listed banks projecting aggregate pre-tax profit of VND 85,226 billion, up 23% year-on-year but down 7% quarter-on-quarter. VietinBank (CTG), listed on HOSE, is forecast to lead the sector by profit scale at VND 14,143 billion.

Key Facts

• Foreign net selling in banking stocks reached VND 37,500 billion (~USD 1.5 billion) year-to-date.
• Q3/2026 aggregate pre-tax profit for 11 banks is forecast at VND 85,226 billion, +23% YoY but -7% QoQ.
• CTG is projected to post VND 14,143 billion in Q3 pre-tax profit, +33% YoY, the highest among the 11 banks.
• VCB follows at VND 13,405 billion (+19% YoY) and VPB at VND 10,678 billion (+16% YoY).
• HDB shows the fastest growth at +43% YoY, driven by 26% credit growth year-to-date.
• OCB is the only bank forecast to decline, with profit down 8% YoY.
• System-wide credit grew 10.37% year-to-date as of September 23, 2026, while the 11-bank portfolio expanded 13.0%.

What Happened

Foreign investors have been consistent net sellers of Vietnamese banking equities throughout 2026, with cumulative net sales reaching VND 37,500 billion, equivalent to roughly USD 1.5 billion. The selling pressure has persisted even as sector fundamentals remain broadly positive, with Q3/2026 pre-tax profit for the 11-bank coverage universe forecast at VND 85,226 billion. Total operating income is estimated at VND 168,800 billion (+20% YoY), comprising VND 134,000 billion in net interest income and VND 35,000 billion in non-interest income.

State-owned banks are forecast to outperform joint-stock commercial banks, with pre-tax profit growth of 28% YoY versus 19% for the latter group. This divergence is attributed primarily to lower credit provisioning costs, which are projected to rise just 10% YoY for state-owned banks compared to 33% for joint-stock peers, helped by a high base from the prior year. VDSC, which produced the forecasts, noted that risks to its projections lean toward higher-than-expected provisioning costs. The report highlights that the ratio of net new bad debt over the trailing 12 months has edged up to 1.10% from 1.03%, while early indicators continue to deteriorate.

Market Context

CTG closed at VND 30,050 on October 1, 2026, on HOSE. VCB ended at VND 57,600, VPB at VND 23,300, and HDB at VND 28,000. The banking sector has faced persistent foreign selling pressure in 2026, mirroring a broader trend of foreign outflows from Vietnamese equities. Despite this, the sector’s aggregate credit growth of 13.0% year-to-date for the 11-bank portfolio outpaces the system-wide figure of 10.37% as of September 23, 2026. The State Bank of Vietnam is expected to grant additional credit quotas in early Q4 2026 as many banks approach their current limits.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the divergence between foreign selling and improving earnings highlights a potential disconnect. The state-owned bank group, including CTG, BID, and VCB, benefits from lower provisioning costs and stronger profit growth, supported by high base effects. However, the rise in group 2 loans, particularly at HDB (from 2.58% to 4.70%) and VPB (3.17%), signals emerging asset quality stress that could pressure future provisioning. The 40% YoY increase in accrued interest and fees, double the 19% credit growth, suggests a portion of income is being recognized without cash collection, a risk if loans migrate to non-performing status. The sector’s ability to sustain earnings growth will depend on credit quota expansion and the trajectory of group 2 loans into 2027.

What to Watch

• SBV credit quota allocation announcements in early Q4 2026.
• Q3/2026 earnings releases from CTG, VCB, VPB, HDB, BID, and OCB, expected in late October 2026.
• Monthly foreign flow data for banking stocks on HOSE.
• Group 2 loan ratios in Q3/2026 financial statements, particularly for HDB and VPB.
• Deposit rate trends, with approximately 11 banks offering 9%+ annual rates in September 2026.