MBS Names CTD, VCG, HHV, CII as Beneficiaries of 2026-2030 Public Investment Cycle

Overview

MBS Securities (MBS) has identified CTD, VCG, HHV, and CII as key beneficiaries of Vietnam’s 2026-2030 public investment cycle, forecasting a 15% increase in backlog for listed construction firms in 2026 and a further 10% in 2027. The cycle is expected to accelerate large-scale infrastructure projects, including railways and expressways, providing a multi-year growth catalyst for the sector.

Key Facts

• MBS forecasts backlog growth of 15% in 2026 and 10% in 2027 for listed construction companies.
• CTD is expected to see a 30% year-on-year backlog increase in 2026, driven by projects such as Gia Binh airport and Phu Quoc airport expansion.
• VCG’s backlog is forecast to rise 9%, HHV 7%, and CII 2% in 2026.
• Key projects include the Hanoi-Hai Phong-Lao Cai railway, North-South high-speed railway, and Can Gio railway.
• The government is focusing on public-private partnerships (PPP) to leverage private capital and reduce budget pressure.
• A proposed credit mechanism may exclude loans for special projects from annual credit growth limits, improving capital access for investors.
• The recovery of real estate supply is also expected to boost orders for construction firms in 2026.

What Happened

In a recent industry report, MBS Securities assessed that 2026 will be a pivotal year for the medium-term public investment cycle of 2026-2030. The brokerage expects public investment disbursement to continue growing positively, supported by streamlined procedures for compensation, site clearance, and decentralization to local authorities. The government is prioritizing large-scale projects under PPP models to reduce fiscal pressure.

MBS highlighted that the new cycle will be tied to strategic infrastructure projects, particularly in railways, such as the Hanoi-Hai Phong-Lao Cai railway, the North-South high-speed railway, and the Can Gio railway. Additionally, a proposed mechanism to exempt loans for special projects from annual credit growth limits could further support project financing.

Market Context

As of July 19, 2026, CTD closed at VND 63,500 on HOSE, VCG at VND 16,800, HHV at VND 10,300, and CII at VND 15,350. The construction sector has been under pressure from slow public disbursement and real estate headwinds. However, the 2026-2030 cycle is expected to provide a structural uplift, with civil construction firms like CTD benefiting earlier from real estate recovery, while infrastructure firms like VCG, HHV, and CII may see more gradual gains.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the public investment cycle offers a multi-year demand driver for construction companies. CTD stands out with a 30% backlog growth forecast, reflecting its strong positioning in large-scale projects. VCG, HHV, and CII are more exposed to infrastructure, which may take longer to materialize but offers sustained revenue visibility. The proposed credit mechanism could further accelerate project execution, while PPP models reduce fiscal constraints. The recovery of real estate supply adds a complementary catalyst for civil construction firms.

What to Watch

• Q3 2026 earnings reports for CTD, VCG, HHV, and CII to assess backlog conversion.
• Approval of the credit mechanism exemption for special projects.
• Progress on key railway projects: North-South high-speed railway and Hanoi-Hai Phong-Lao Cai railway.
• Public investment disbursement data for 2026, especially in infrastructure.
• Real estate supply recovery indicators, particularly for civil construction demand.