Maybank: Vietnam Lending Rates May Have Peaked as BIDV, Vietcombank Cut 200 bps

Overview

Maybank analysts argue that Vietnamese lending rates may have peaked after the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) and the country’s largest state-owned banks committed to cutting deposit and lending rates by 150-200 basis points for priority sectors. The view covers BIDV (BID, HOSE) and Vietcombank (VCB, HOSE), both of which announced 200 bps lending-rate reductions, and links medium-term funding costs to a potential sovereign upgrade to investment grade.

Key Facts

• At an October 16 meeting, a deputy minister and commercial banks committed to cutting lending rates for priority sectors by 150-200 bps, equivalent to 1.5-2 percentage points.
• SBV Official Letter No. 9608/NHNN directs banks not to compete on deposit rates, to cut deposit rates for terms of six months or more by at least 50 bps, and to reduce lending rates by 150-200 bps for manufacturing and priority groups.
• The chairmen of BIDV, Vietcombank and Agribank said they will cut lending rates by 200 bps on loans from now through the end of 2026.
• Maybank estimates an upgrade to investment grade could lower offshore borrowing costs by roughly 150-250 bps, based on previous upgrade cases.
• Maybank sees a sustainable, broad-based lending rate level of around 7-10% only if input funding costs fall materially.
• The broker notes that eligibility conditions for the preferential loan packages have not yet been published.

What Happened

Maybank’s research note follows expressions of concern by senior government leaders over financial pressure on enterprises and instructions to the financial system to design measures to lower lending rates. At the October 16 meeting, a deputy minister and the banks committed to the 150-200 bps reduction for priority sectors. The SBV then issued Official Letter 9608/NHNN, which also bars banks from racing to raise deposit rates and requires at least a 50 bps cut on deposits of six months or longer.

The chairmen of BIDV, Vietcombank and Agribank subsequently announced 200 bps lending-rate cuts on loans through end-2026 to support manufacturing and priority groups. Maybank reads the coordinated commitments as a signal that lending rates have peaked, but cautions that the decisive factor for a durable, system-wide decline is improved money supply and a lower cost of capital across the banking system. The broker notes that so far only directives, resolve and commitments have been recorded, while the measures needed to address the funding problem have not been clearly set out.

Market Context

BID closed at VND 33,950 and VCB at VND 56,900 on 2026-10-18, with both state-owned lenders trading as the policy transmission channel for the rate directive. The banking sector is the primary lever through which the SBV’s instruction reaches corporate borrowers, so the credibility of the 200 bps commitment matters directly for net interest margin expectations at BID and VCB. The note also frames offshore funding costs against a global backdrop of persistently high borrowing rates, tying the sector’s cost of capital to Vietnam’s sovereign rating trajectory.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the note reframes the rate story from a cyclical cut to a structural funding question. BID and VCB are being asked to absorb 200 bps of lending-rate relief while the SBV simultaneously restrains deposit-rate competition, which compresses margins unless operating costs and funding costs fall in tandem. Maybank’s 7-10% sustainable lending-rate range implies that profitability at the state banks depends less on the size of the announced cuts than on whether deposit and wholesale funding costs decline enough to protect spreads. The investment-grade angle is the more durable thesis: a 150-250 bps reduction in offshore borrowing costs would lower the sovereign and corporate cost of capital, but it requires rating action rather than administrative guidance.

What to Watch

• Publication of eligibility criteria and loan sizes for the preferential packages, which Maybank says are not yet disclosed.
• Deposit-rate movements for six-month-plus terms following Official Letter 9608/NHNN.
• BID and VCB third-quarter and full-year net interest margin disclosures.
• Sovereign rating actions or outlook changes from the major agencies.
• SBV money-supply and credit-growth data confirming whether funding costs are actually falling.