USD/VND drops sharply at banks and free market on Aug 13

Overview

On August 13, the USD/VND exchange rate dropped sharply at commercial banks and on the free market, while the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) raised its central rate by 27 dong to 25,566 VND/USD. The move affects major listed banks including BIDV (BID), Vietcombank (VCB), VietinBank (CTG), Techcombank (TCB), ACB, and Sacombank (STB), all of which saw their USD quotes decline by 60-100 dong. Analysts from Vietcap and MBS see mixed pressures ahead, with a stronger USD offset by supportive FDI inflows and domestic interest rates.

Key Facts

• SBV set the central rate at 25,566 VND/USD on Aug 13, up 27 dong from the previous session’s 25,539.
• Trading band is +/-5%, putting the ceiling at 26,844 and floor at 24,288 VND/USD.
• Vietcombank quoted USD at 25,870-26,250 VND/USD, down 70 dong on both bid and ask.
• Since early August, Vietcombank’s USD price has fallen 240 dong; versus end-2025, it is down about 130 dong (-0.48%).
• Other banks (BIDV, VietinBank, Techcombank, ACB, Sacombank) cut quotes by 60-100 dong; Techcombank at 25,853-26,251, Sacombank at 25,870-26,240.
• Free-market USD traded around 26,000-26,200 VND/USD.
• Interbank rate closed Aug 12 at 26,065 VND/USD, down 65 dong.
• Disbursed FDI grew 11.8% in the first seven months of 2026, supporting the dong.

What Happened

The USD/VND exchange rate declined sharply on August 13, with commercial banks cutting their USD buying and selling prices by 60-100 dong compared with the previous session. Vietcombank, for instance, lowered its quote to 25,870-26,250 VND/USD, a drop of 70 dong on both sides. The free-market rate also cooled to 26,000-26,200 VND/USD, narrowing the premium over the official rate to -0.1% from +1.5% at end-June, according to MBS Securities.

The SBV raised its central rate by 27 dong to 25,566 VND/USD, keeping the trading band at +/-5%. The interbank rate fell 65 dong to 26,065 VND/USD on August 12. Analysts attribute the easing to lower international gold prices, which reduced USD demand for gold imports, and to stable domestic conditions.

Market Context

On HOSE, BID closed at 40,000 dong (+0.64%) on August 13, while VCB rose 1.01% to 60,000 dong and CTG gained 1.40% to 33,000 dong. TCB last traded at 31,500 dong on August 12. The banking sector has been sensitive to FX movements, as a stable dong supports asset quality and reduces provisioning needs. The recent decline in USD/VND follows a period of relative stability in July, when the interbank rate moved within a narrow 26,254-26,335 range and ended the month nearly flat versus end-2025.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the current FX dynamics are a double-edged sword. On one hand, a stable or appreciating dong reduces currency risk for banks with foreign-currency funding and supports their net interest margins. On the other, the expected strengthening of the USD in the second half of 2026—driven by the Fed’s cautious stance and potential rate hikes—could pressure the dong again. Banks with large USD positions, such as BID, VCB, and CTG, may face higher hedging costs or valuation impacts. However, strong FDI inflows and high domestic interest rates provide a cushion, making the outlook balanced.

What to Watch

• SBV’s daily central rate announcements for signs of intervention or policy shifts.
• Monthly trade balance data, especially whether the record deficit narrows as expected.
• Fed policy signals and US Treasury yield movements, which influence USD strength.
• Quarterly earnings reports from BID, VCB, CTG, TCB, ACB, and STB for FX-related income or provisions.
• Free-market vs. official rate spread, which indicates speculative pressure.