Vietnam Central Bank Reference Rate Hits New Peak as Fed Hikes: BIDV in Focus

Overview

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) raised its daily reference USD/VND rate for a fourth consecutive session to 25,632, up 0.02%, while BIDV lifted its listed quote to 26,185, up 0.04%. The move followed the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point hike to a 3.75%-4% target range, the first increase since July 2023, which pushed the Dollar Index to roughly 100.34, its highest in nearly seven weeks. For BIDV (BID, HOSE), the shift matters because exchange-rate volatility feeds directly into banks’ foreign-currency trading books, dollar-funding costs and corporate borrowers’ debt-service capacity.

Key Facts

• SBV reference rate set at VND25,632/USD, 0.02% higher and the fourth straight daily increase.
• Banks may list the dollar within a 5% band around the SBV reference rate.
• BIDV raised its listed exchange rate 0.04% to VND26,185/USD.
• Black-market greenback rose 0.19% to VND25,820/USD.
• The Fed lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, its first hike since July 2023.
• The Dollar Index climbed to about 100.34, up roughly 1.3% over the past week and 0.7% over the past month.
• BID closed at 36,700 on 2026-09-17 on HOSE.

What Happened

The SBV’s reference rate was set 0.02% higher at VND25,632, extending a run of four consecutive increases after three weeks of sideways movement and slight declines, according to the central bank’s daily fixing. Commercial banks are permitted to quote the dollar within a 5% band around that reference. BIDV responded by raising its listed rate 0.04% to VND26,185, while the parallel-market rate rose 0.19% to VND25,820.

The trigger was the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023. The dollar strengthened after the decision, with the Dollar Index rising to around 100.34, its highest level in nearly seven weeks. Nguyen Hoan Nien, an analyst at Shinhan Securities, said the Fed’s hike could add pressure on the USD/VND rate over the next few weeks, and that the exchange rate could stabilize again in the final quarter if the Fed does not tighten further, though he noted actual developments depend on many other factors.

Market Context

BID closed at 36,700 on 2026-09-17 on HOSE. Vietnamese banks are the first line of transmission for exchange-rate moves: a higher USD/VND rate lifts the dong value of foreign-currency assets and liabilities, affects treasury trading gains, and raises repayment burdens for corporate clients with unhedged dollar debt. The SBV’s willingness to let the reference rate drift higher for four sessions signals tolerance for gradual dong depreciation rather than a defensive, rate-defending stance, a posture that has historically coincided with periods of foreign portfolio outflows and imported inflation pressure.

Strategic Significance

For long-term holders of BID, the exchange-rate channel is a second-order but persistent earnings variable. A weaker dong supports banks’ foreign-currency trading income in the short run but pressures asset quality among importers, exporters with dollar costs, and firms with offshore bonds. The Fed’s first hike since July 2023 also narrows the room for the SBV to cut policy rates without inviting sharper capital outflows, which matters for net interest margins across the banking sector. BIDV’s state-linked balance sheet and large corporate loan book make it more exposed than peers to the credit quality of dollar-borrowing clients.

What to Watch

• SBV daily reference-rate fixings for signs the four-session streak extends or reverses.
• BIDV’s next listed USD/VND quote and any change to its foreign-currency trading position disclosures.
• Fed policy guidance and U.S. inflation prints that determine whether the Dollar Index holds above 100.
• SBV open-market and bill operations, which indicate how aggressively the central bank is managing dong liquidity.
• BID’s Q3 earnings release and any commentary on foreign-exchange trading results and provisioning.