Vietnam State Divestment Stocks: Deep Discounts and Decision 40/2026 Opportunities

Overview

State divestment stocks in Vietnam have shown a recent uptick in late Q3 2026, yet most remain deeply discounted from their 2026 highs. Decision 40/2026/QD-TTg, which operationalizes Resolution 79, may open significant divestment room at large state-owned groups, potentially reshaping the market. This analysis covers the performance of key tickers including BCM, GAS, GVR, BID, VCB, and BMI.

Key Facts

• BCM (HOSE) closed at VND 41,150 on 2026-08-11, down 50% from its 2026 peak and 32% year-to-date.
• GAS (HOSE) is more than 30% below its 2026 high but still up 10.21% year-to-date.
• GVR (HNX) is over 40% below its peak, yet up 21.37% year-to-date.
• BID (HOSE) is up 2.72% year-to-date but has a drawdown of nearly 30% from its high.
• VCB (HOSE) is up 5.75% year-to-date but remains about 23% below its peak.
• Only 7 of 27 tracked divestment stocks (25.93%) maintain a long-term uptrend, down from over 80% earlier in 2026.
• Decision 40/2026/QD-TTg sets new ownership caps of 65% or 50% for state-owned enterprises, compared to current actual holdings often above 90%.

What Happened

On August 10, 2026, several state divestment stocks, including BCM, GAS, and GVR, hit limit-up, sparking renewed interest in the theme. However, the broader picture remains challenging: most divestment-related stocks are still significantly below their 2026 peaks. According to data compiled by the research desk, BCM has suffered the steepest decline, falling 50% from its yearly high and 32% from the start of the year.

Nguyễn Tuấn Anh, Chairman of FinPeace, noted that the market’s primary trend is sideways, with insufficient capital flows to sustain a clear rally. Meanwhile, Nguyễn Thế Minh, Director of Investment Banking at ABS Securities, highlighted that Decision 40/2026/QD-TTg, while not entirely new, provides concrete implementation for Resolution 79. The decision’s key impact lies in the potential to unlock significant divestment capacity, especially at conglomerates like Viettel and PVN, where state ownership often exceeds 90%. Additionally, the rule transferring investments where the state holds less than 50% could turn SCIC into a major restructuring hub.

Market Context

As of August 11-12, 2026, BCM (HOSE) traded at VND 41,150, reflecting a sharp correction from its 2026 peak. GAS (HOSE) closed at VND 77,500, while GVR (HNX) was at VND 32,000. BID (HOSE) and VCB (HOSE) showed modest year-to-date gains but remain well below their highs. The divestment theme has seen a breadth improvement, but only a quarter of the 27 tracked stocks are in long-term uptrends, indicating persistent weakness. The market’s sideways movement and lack of strong liquidity suggest that recent rallies may be short-lived without further confirmation.

Strategic Significance

Decision 40/2026/QD-TTg could be a catalyst for long-term restructuring of state-owned enterprises, potentially increasing the supply of shares to the market. For investors, this means opportunities in undervalued stocks with restructuring or M&A potential, such as BMI, which may benefit from SCIC’s expanded role. However, policy room does not automatically translate into price appreciation; the market’s current divergence in state asset valuations suggests that selective, fundamental-driven plays will be key. The divestment theme could become a major driver of market activity in the coming years, but only if execution matches policy intent.

What to Watch

• Implementation details of Decision 40/2026/QD-TTg, including specific divestment timelines and ownership caps.
• Quarterly earnings reports from BCM, GAS, GVR, and other divestment candidates for signs of operational improvement.
• SCIC’s portfolio restructuring announcements, particularly any large transfers or sales.
• Market liquidity and foreign investor flows, which could signal sustained interest in divestment stocks.
• Any official statements from Viettel or PVN regarding divestment plans, as they are expected to be major beneficiaries.