Vietnam Securities Stocks Fall 24% in 2026 Despite FTSE Russell Upgrade Hopes

Overview

Vietnam’s securities sector index has fallen 23.46% year-to-date through 9 October 2026, far outpacing the 2.77% decline in the VN-Index, according to VietstockFinance data cited by the source article. The divergence matters most for deeply discounted small and mid-cap brokers on HOSE, led by Chứng khoán APG (APG), which is down 61.44% since the start of the year, alongside CSI, VDS, FTS and VIX. The article attributes the underperformance to weak near-term earnings prospects and a sharp contraction in market liquidity, which has so far outweighed optimism around the FTSE Russell frontier-to-emerging market upgrade.

Key Facts

• The securities sector index fell 23.46% year-to-date to 9 October 2026, versus a 2.77% decline for the VN-Index over the same period.
• Over one year the sector lost 39.92%, while the VN-Index gained 2.19%; over three years the sector rose 7.18% against 53.75% for the VN-Index.
• Roughly 80% of the 43 listed securities stocks were more than 20% below their most recent peak as of the 9 October 2026 session.
• APG fell 61.44% year-to-date, CSI 50.71%, VDS 44.56%, FTS 40.63% and VIX 37.91%.
• Only four tickers were positive year-to-date: ABW (+22.88%), HCM (+21.51%), VUA (+11.28%) and HAC (+3.49%).
• Average daily trading value on HOSE and HNX in Q3 2026 was about VND 18.13 trillion, down 46% from Q1 2026 and 58% year-on-year.
• Võ Kim Phụng, Head of Analysis at Chứng khoán Beta, linked broker earnings sensitivity to liquidity, margin balances, interest rates and proprietary trading.

What Happened

The article, published by a Vietnamese financial news outlet and drawing on VietstockFinance data updated to 9 October 2026, frames the sell-off as a puzzle: securities stocks have lagged even as Vietnam’s capital markets advance, including FTSE Russell’s reclassification of the market to emerging status. The data show the gap widening across time horizons. On a three-year view the sector’s 7.18% gain is dwarfed by the VN-Index’s 53.75%, indicating that the group has failed to deliver returns commensurate with the broader market’s advance.

The article notes that the VN-Index itself is increasingly distorted by a handful of large-capitalisation stocks and no longer fully reflects the majority of listed shares. Even allowing for that, the brokerage picture is described as bleak. Võ Kim Phụng of Chứng khoán Beta is quoted explaining that securities stocks carry high sensitivity to the market cycle because earnings depend on turnover, margin debt, interest rates and proprietary trading. When market expectations turn cautious, as in the recent period, brokerage shares typically correct more sharply than the wider index. Falling liquidity feeds directly into brokerage revenue, while margin demand weakens as investors reduce leverage.

Market Context

APG trades on HOSE at VND 4,060 as of 18 October 2026, near the bottom of the sector’s year-to-date performance table and among the smallest capitalisations in the group. CSI closed at VND 14,000, VDS at VND 9,900 and FTS at VND 18,600 on the same date. The sector’s underperformance sits against a Vietnamese market where the VN-Index has been broadly flat to slightly negative in 2026, masking wide dispersion beneath the surface. The article’s central market-context point is that index-level stability has not translated into breadth, and brokerage stocks, as the highest-beta proxy for retail participation, have absorbed the adjustment.

Strategic Significance

The long-term thesis for Vietnamese brokers rests on the FTSE Russell upgrade and the deepening of the capital market, both of which should raise trading volumes, margin balances and fee income over time. The article’s evidence suggests that thesis is being deferred rather than invalidated: the near-term earnings base is contracting faster than the structural story is building. For long-term investors the relevant question is which brokers can hold margin share and fee pricing through a low-liquidity trough, and whether the dispersion between ABW and HCM on one side and APG, CSI and VDS on the other reflects durable differences in franchise quality or simply differences in starting valuation and leverage. The article does not resolve that question and does not disclose company-level earnings figures.

What to Watch

• Q3 2026 earnings releases from APG, CSI, VDS, FTS and VIX, which will show whether brokerage and margin revenue tracked the 46% quarter-on-quarter fall in turnover.
• Monthly HOSE and HNX average daily trading value, to test whether the liquidity trough has bottomed.
• Margin balance data from brokers and the State Securities Commission, as a proxy for retail leverage appetite.
• Any official timeline or implementation detail on the FTSE Russell reclassification, which the article cites as the sector’s main long-term catalyst.
• Foreign-ownership and block-trade filings in the four positive performers (ABW, HCM, VUA, HAC) for signs of selective accumulation.