VPBank Leads Q2-2026 Credit Risk Provisions as Vietnamese Banks' NPL Ratio Hits 6-Year High
This Aveluro analysis covers VPB (VPBank) on HOSE in the Banks sector. The classified event type is sector sentiment, with negative sentiment and a deterministic market-impact score of 4.0/10. Aveluro classifies this story as a negative catalyst and risk signal for the affected stock. Source coverage came from Tuổi Trẻ - Kinh doanh, classified as a primary/top-tier source.
Key Facts
Caveat: Not investment advice. · How Aveluro computed this: Aveluro combines extracted event facts, source credibility, ticker context, and market data. Scores are deterministic research signals, not recommendations.
Overview
Vietnamese banks’ total credit risk provisioning in Q2-2026 rose nearly 10.5% year-on-year to over 43,452 billion VND, with VPBank leading the ranking. The industry’s NPL ratio climbed to 1.97%, the highest since Q2-2020, reflecting growing asset quality pressure across the sector.
Key Facts
- Total credit risk provisioning by 27 banks in Q2-2026 reached 43,452 billion VND, up 10.5% year-on-year.
- VPBank (VPB) led with 7,910 billion VND in provisions, up 3.1% from Q1, overtaking VietinBank (CTG).
- VietinBank’s provisions fell 31.2% to 5,300 billion VND, dropping to third place; BIDV (BID) ranked second with 5,820 billion VND, up 5.9%.
- Sacombank (STB) saw provisions surge 151.7% quarter-on-quarter to 5,095 billion VND, equivalent to 71% of its pre-provision operating profit.
- SHB increased provisions by 149.6% to 3,825 billion VND; HDBank (HDB) by 104.2% to 2,570 billion VND; OCB by 85% to 905 billion VND.
- Industry NPL ratio rose to 1.97% at end-Q2-2026 from 1.88% in Q1, the highest since Q2-2020; NPL coverage ratio fell to 83% from 86%.
What Happened
According to financial reports from 27 banks, total credit risk provisioning in Q2-2026 increased nearly 10.5% year-on-year to over 43,452 billion VND. VPBank led the ranking with 7,910 billion VND, up 3.1% from the previous quarter, displacing VietinBank, which cut provisions by 31.2% to 5,300 billion VND and fell to third place. BIDV ranked second with 5,820 billion VND, up 5.9%.
Sacombank was the most notable riser, with provisions jumping 151.7% quarter-on-quarter to 5,095 billion VND, equivalent to 71% of its pre-provision operating profit, lifting it to fourth place. SHB, HDBank, and OCB also posted sharp increases. Conversely, Vietcombank reduced provisions by 79.8% to 503 billion VND, dropping from fifth to fifteenth place, while ABBank cut provisions by 70.6% to 252 billion VND.
Market Context
VPB closed at 25,000 VND on August 10, 2026, up 1.40% on volume of 3,066,200 shares on HOSE. CTG closed at 33,000 VND, up 0.62%, while BID and STB closed at 39,050 VND and 74,600 VND respectively on August 9. The sector faces rising NPLs, with the industry NPL ratio at 1.97%, the highest in six years, and NPL coverage declining to 83%. This trend is pressuring bank profitability and capital adequacy.
Strategic Significance
The sharp increase in provisioning, particularly at VPBank and Sacombank, signals deteriorating asset quality and a more cautious stance by banks. For long-term investors, this suggests that earnings growth may be constrained as banks set aside more capital for potential loan losses. The divergence in provisioning trends—some banks cutting provisions while others increase—highlights varying risk profiles and management strategies. The sector’s NPL ratio at a six-year high could prompt tighter regulatory oversight and affect credit growth targets.
What to Watch
- Q3-2026 earnings reports and provisioning trends at VPBank, Sacombank, and other major banks.
- Further changes in the industry NPL ratio and NPL coverage ratio.
- Regulatory actions by the State Bank of Vietnam regarding asset quality and provisioning requirements.
- Credit growth data and its impact on bank profitability.
- Any updates on specific problem loans or restructuring efforts at banks with rising NPLs.