Vietnam Aviation 2026 Outlook: 13% Growth, 94M Passengers — VJC and HVN in Focus

Overview

Vietnam’s Civil Aviation Authority (Cục Hàng không Việt Nam), reporting to the Ministry of Construction, projects the domestic aviation market will reach approximately 94 million passengers and more than 1.6 million tonnes of cargo in 2026, growth of 13% and 9.3% respectively versus 2025. The forecast is the most direct demand signal yet for the two listed Vietnamese carriers, Vietjet (VJC) on HOSE and Vietnam Airlines (HVN) on HOSE, and it lands alongside fleet expansion plans and the build-out of Long Thành and Gia Bình airports.

Key Facts

• Full-year 2026 forecast: about 94 million passengers, up 13% year-on-year, and over 1.6 million tonnes of cargo, up 9.3%.
• First nine months of 2026: roughly 70.5 million passengers carried, up 12.6% year-on-year, and about 1.3 million tonnes of cargo, up 13%.
• National Day holiday window (29 August to 2 September): about 1.2 million passengers and 11,600 take-offs and landings, up 10.4% and 13.6% respectively versus 2025.
• Vietjet, Sun PhuQuoc Airways and Vietravel Airlines all have plans to add aircraft through lease and purchase.
• Regulatory framework updated via Nghị định 208 dated 15 June 2026 and Thông tư 48 dated 30 June 2026.
• International cooperation expanded with ASEAN–UK, India, Canada, Russia and Turkey, among other partners.
• Long Thành International Airport is finalising an exploitation-allocation plan; Gia Bình International Airport is being positioned around a multimodal logistics centre.

What Happened

The authority’s nine-month market report, submitted to the Ministry of Construction, states that Vietnamese carriers sustained double-digit growth despite fuel-price volatility, geopolitical conflict and global supply-chain disruption. Passenger volumes reached about 70.5 million in the first nine months of 2026, up 12.6%, while cargo throughput rose 13% to roughly 1.3 million tonnes. Peak-period data reinforced the trend: during the 2 September National Day break, carriers moved about 1.2 million passengers across 11,600 take-offs and landings, increases of 10.4% and 13.6% over the same period in 2025.

On the supply side, the report notes that Vietjet, Sun PhuQuoc Airways and Vietravel Airlines are all adding aircraft through leases and purchases to lift operating capacity. The authority is also streamlining support measures, from issuing and renewing business licences to assisting aircraft leasing and purchase, granting flight permits and coordinating slots at airports. The legal corridor was updated through Nghị định 208 of 15 June 2026 and Thông tư 48 of 30 June 2026, while bilateral cooperation with ASEAN–UK, India, Canada, Russia and Turkey continues to widen international route options.

Market Context

VJC closed at VND 128,800 on 6 October 2026, while HVN closed at VND 20,150 on the same date, both on HOSE. The sector narrative has shifted from post-pandemic recovery to capacity expansion, with the authority explicitly framing new infrastructure as the next growth lever. At Nội Bài and Tân Sơn Nhất, ground-traffic coordination and dedicated bus and ride-hailing lanes are being reinforced to relieve congestion, while Long Thành is being prepared for a phased exploitation split and Gia Bình is being tied to multimodal logistics. The authority argues these hubs reduce pressure on existing airports and reorganise the transport network, extending the economic development envelope beyond the two main gateways.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the 13% passenger and 9.3% cargo forecasts matter less as headline numbers than as a capacity-allocation signal. Vietnamese carriers have historically grown revenue by adding aircraft and routes; the report confirms that Vietjet, Sun PhuQuoc Airways and Vietravel Airlines are doing exactly that, which supports VJC’s volume-led model but also intensifies domestic competition on trunk routes. The cargo figure is the quieter story: 1.6 million tonnes and a Gia Bình logistics hub point to a structural shift toward higher-yield freight, an area where Vietnam Airlines’ wide-body fleet and Vietjet’s expanding cargo ambitions compete directly. Regulatory updates under Nghị định 208 and Thông tư 48, plus new bilateral routes with India, Canada and Turkey, lower the friction cost of international expansion — the segment where margins are typically strongest.

What to Watch

• Vietjet and Vietnam Airlines Q3 and Q4 2026 earnings releases, particularly load factor and cargo revenue disclosure.
• Monthly passenger and cargo statistics from Cục Hàng không Việt Nam for October and November 2026, to test whether the 13% full-year run rate holds.
• Long Thành International Airport phase-one exploitation and allocation announcements, including the terminal handover timeline.
• Aircraft delivery schedules for Vietjet, Sun PhuQuoc Airways and Vietravel Airlines, and any associated financing or sale-and-leaseback filings.
• Fuel-price and exchange-rate movements, given the report’s explicit flagging of fuel volatility as a margin risk.