VISRating Warns Vietnam Bank Asset Risks Stay High in H2 2026

Overview

VISRating, a Vietnamese credit rating agency, forecasts that asset risks in the banking sector will stay elevated in H2 2026, with the industry’s overdue loan ratio rising to 3.8% in H1 2026 from 3.3% in 2025. The report, based on 27 listed banks, highlights weakening loss absorption capacity and notes that VCB and ACB maintain stable asset quality. Several banks, including VPB, HDB, and MBB, plan capital increases in H2 2026.

Key Facts

• Overdue loan ratio for the banking industry rose to 3.8% in H1 2026, up from 3.3% in 2025.
• Tangible common equity to total assets (TCE/TA) declined to 8.3% in H1 2026 from 8.4% at end-Q1 2026.
• Loan loss coverage ratio (LLCR) fell to 79% in H1 2026, down 4 percentage points from end-2025.
• VCB and ACB maintain stable asset quality due to diversified portfolios and prudent underwriting.
• Capital increase plans for H2 2026 are noted at VPB, HDB, ABB, MBB, VBB, NAB, VAB, and SSB.
• CASA ratio held at 18% of total loans, supported by state-owned and large banks.

What Happened

In its latest banking sector outlook update, VISRating reported that asset risks have spread across many banks as high borrowing costs and a difficult business environment weaken borrowers’ repayment capacity. The overdue loan ratio for the industry increased to 3.8% in the first half of 2026, from 3.3% for the full year 2025. Pressure is rising in both retail and corporate segments, with particular stress in mortgages and household businesses.

VISRating noted that high interest rates and increased household leverage are straining repayment ability, while corporate credit risks are rising at some large banks, especially in real estate, food and beverage, and agriculture. In contrast, VCB and ACB are maintaining stable asset quality due to diversified portfolios, cautious underwriting standards, and lower exposure to high-risk real estate lending. The agency forecasts asset risks will remain high in H2 2026 as interest rates stay elevated.

Market Context

Vietcombank (VCB), listed on HOSE, closed at VND 60 on August 27, 2026, up 0.17% with a volume of 2.67 million shares. The banking sector has been under pressure from rising non-performing loans and weakening capital buffers, as highlighted by VISRating’s report. Other affected tickers include ACB (HOSE), HDB (HOSE), VPB (HOSE), and MBB (HOSE), which have shown mixed price action recently. The sector’s overall sentiment is cautious as investors weigh asset quality risks against potential capital increases.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the VISRating report underscores the importance of asset quality differentiation among Vietnamese banks. VCB and ACB’s stable performance suggests that prudent risk management and diversified portfolios can mitigate sector-wide pressures. The planned capital increases at several banks, including VPB, HDB, and MBB, are positive signals for strengthening capital buffers, which could support future growth and resilience. However, the declining LLCR and TCE/TA ratios indicate that the sector’s ability to absorb losses is weakening, which may lead to tighter credit conditions or increased provisioning in the coming quarters.

What to Watch

• Q3 2026 earnings reports from VCB, ACB, VPB, HDB, and MBB for updates on NPL ratios and provisioning.
• Execution of capital increase plans at VPB, HDB, MBB, and others in H2 2026.
• Changes in interest rates and credit growth, as they directly impact asset quality.
• Regulatory actions or policy adjustments by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) regarding loan classification or capital requirements.
• Further updates from VISRating or other rating agencies on the sector’s loss absorption capacity.