Vietnam Bank Overdue Loans Spread to Major Lenders, VIS Rating Says
This Aveluro analysis covers VCB (Vietcombank) on HOSE in the Banks sector. The classified event type is sector sentiment, with negative sentiment and a deterministic market-impact score of 4.0/10. Aveluro classifies this story as a negative catalyst and risk signal for the affected stock. Source coverage came from CafeF - Tài chính ngân hàng, classified as a primary/top-tier source.
Key Facts
Caveat: Not investment advice. · How Aveluro computed this: Aveluro combines extracted event facts, source credibility, ticker context, and market data. Scores are deterministic research signals, not recommendations.
Overview
VIS Rating’s latest industry update reveals that overdue retail loans, especially mortgages, are spreading from smaller banks to major Vietnamese lenders. The sector’s overdue ratio rose to 3.8% in H1 2026 from 3.3% at end-2025, while loan loss coverage dropped to 79%. Vietcombank (VCB) and ACB are highlighted as exceptions with stable asset quality.
Key Facts
- Industry overdue loan ratio increased to 3.8% in H1 2026 from 3.3% at end-2025.
- Loan loss coverage ratio (LLCR) fell to 79% in H1 2026, down 4 percentage points from end-2025.
- Overdue loans spread to major banks, particularly in mortgages and household business loans.
- Corporate overdue risks rose in real estate, food & beverage, and agriculture sectors.
- Vietcombank and ACB maintained stable asset quality due to diversified portfolios and prudent underwriting.
- State-owned banks like VietinBank (CTG) and BIDV (BID) saw notable declines in LLCR.
- High interest rates and geopolitical tensions are pressuring borrowers’ repayment capacity.
What Happened
VIS Rating, a Vietnamese credit rating agency, published an update on the banking sector for H1 2026, warning that asset quality deterioration is broadening. The report, based on industry data and bank disclosures, estimates the sector’s overdue loan ratio climbed to 3.8% in the first half of 2026, up from 3.3% at the end of 2025. The increase is attributed to rising repayment stress among both retail and corporate borrowers, with retail overdue loans now appearing at some of the country’s largest banks, particularly in mortgage and household business segments.
The report also notes that corporate overdue risks are intensifying at major banks, especially in real estate, food and beverage, and agriculture. High interest rates and elevated household leverage are cited as key drivers. However, VIS Rating identifies Vietcombank and ACB as outliers with stable asset quality, thanks to diversified loan books and cautious underwriting. The agency expects asset risks to remain elevated in H2 2026, with pressure more pronounced on banks with large retail portfolios and rapid real estate lending growth.
Market Context
Vietcombank (VCB), listed on HOSE, closed at VND 59,000 on August 25, 2026, up 0.34% on volume of 5.58 million shares. The broader banking sector has been under scrutiny as credit growth reached 8.7% in H1 2026, but asset quality concerns are mounting. ACB (HOSE) traded at VND 22,200, while state-owned banks BID (HOSE) and CTG (HOSE) closed at VND 36,700 and VND 31,500, respectively. The sector’s declining loan loss coverage, particularly at VietinBank and BIDV, signals weakening buffers against potential losses, a key concern for investors amid high interest rates and geopolitical headwinds.
Strategic Significance
For long-term investors, the divergence in asset quality among Vietnamese banks is becoming a critical differentiator. Vietcombank and ACB’s ability to maintain stable asset quality despite sector-wide stress suggests their conservative lending standards and diversified portfolios offer a defensive edge. Conversely, banks with aggressive retail and real estate lending, especially state-owned institutions, may face higher credit costs and capital pressure. The decline in LLCR to 79% indicates reduced capacity to absorb losses, which could impact profitability and dividend payouts. Investors should weigh these factors when assessing bank valuations and risk profiles.
What to Watch
- Q3 2026 earnings reports from major banks, particularly VCB, ACB, CTG, and BID, for updates on NPL ratios and provisioning.
- VIS Rating’s next industry update, expected in early 2027, to see if overdue ratios stabilize or worsen.
- State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) policy moves on interest rates and credit growth, which could influence borrower repayment capacity.
- Any changes in loan loss coverage ratios at state-owned banks, as they are most exposed to declining buffers.
- Geopolitical developments affecting trade and logistics costs, which could impact corporate borrowers in vulnerable sectors.