Vietnam Foreign Outflows Persist Ahead of FTSE Upgrade: 42 Months of Selling
This Aveluro analysis covers VCB (Vietcombank) on HOSE in the Banks sector. The classified event type is foreign flow, with negative sentiment and a deterministic market-impact score of 7.0/10. Aveluro classifies this story as a negative catalyst and risk signal for the affected stock. Source coverage came from CafeF - Thị trường chứng khoán, classified as a primary/top-tier source.
Key Facts
Caveat: Not investment advice. · How Aveluro computed this: Aveluro combines extracted event facts, source credibility, ticker context, and market data. Scores are deterministic research signals, not recommendations.
Overview
Foreign investors have been net sellers on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) for 42 consecutive months, with only four months of no net selling during that period. Total net selling value exceeded VND 340 trillion, and despite Vietnam’s upcoming FTSE Russell secondary emerging market upgrade on September 21, 2026, foreign outflows continue, with nearly VND 91 trillion withdrawn in 2026. This trend affects major tickers including VCB, VIC, and VHM.
Key Facts
- Foreign investors have been net sellers for 42 months, with only 4 months of no net selling.
- Total net selling value on HoSE exceeded VND 340 trillion over the 3.5-year period.
- In 2026, foreign net selling reached nearly VND 91 trillion, with no month of net buying.
- Vietnam is set to be upgraded to FTSE Russell Secondary Emerging Market on September 21, 2026.
- The first tranche of FTSE index inclusion will apply 10% of the investable weight, with full inclusion expected by September 2027.
- Vietnam’s estimated weight in FTSE Emerging Index will be 0.031% initially, rising to 0.309% upon completion.
- 27 Vietnamese stocks are included in the FTSE Global All Cap Index, including VCB, VIC, VHM, BID, HPG, and VPB.
- VPS forecasts passive funds tracking FTSE GEIS could bring nearly USD 2.4 billion into Vietnamese stocks.
What Happened
According to a report from VPS Securities, foreign investors have been persistently net selling Vietnamese stocks for 42 months, with only four months of no net selling. The last significant inflow occurred in late 2022 and early 2023 when P-Notes money poured in to bottom-fish after the market hit historical lows amid the bond crisis and the Vạn Thịnh Phát scandal. Since then, the trend has been one-way selling, with total net selling exceeding VND 340 trillion on HoSE.
Despite the FTSE Russell upgrade being confirmed in April 2026, foreign outflows have not reversed as hoped. In 2026 alone, foreign investors have withdrawn nearly VND 91 trillion, with no month of net buying. The first tranche of index inclusion will be implemented with a 10% investable weight factor, and the process will be phased until September 2027. The first disbursement period ends on September 18, 2026, before the index becomes effective on September 21, 2026.
Market Context
Vietcombank (VCB), trading on HOSE, closed at VND 58,700 on September 9, 2026. The persistent foreign selling has weighed on large-cap banking stocks, with VCB being a key constituent of the VN30 and FTSE indices. Other affected tickers include VIC (VND 247,700), VHM (VND 72,100), and BID (VND 36,400). The Vietnamese stock market has been under pressure from sustained foreign outflows, even as the FTSE upgrade approaches, creating a disconnect between expected inflows and actual market behavior.
Strategic Significance
The FTSE Russell upgrade is a milestone for Vietnam’s equity market, potentially attracting significant passive inflows. However, the persistent foreign selling suggests that active investors are not yet convinced, possibly due to macro headwinds or valuation concerns. For long-term investors, the upgrade could provide a structural support for liquidity and valuations, but the current outflow trend indicates that foreign investors are waiting for clearer catalysts. The inclusion of 27 Vietnamese stocks in FTSE indices, including VCB, VIC, and VHM, means these names will see increased demand from passive funds over time, but the timing and magnitude remain uncertain.
What to Watch
- Monitor foreign net buying activity in the week of September 14-18, 2026, as the first tranche disbursement window closes.
- Track the actual inflow from passive funds after the FTSE index effective date of September 21, 2026.
- Watch for any changes in foreign ownership limits or market access reforms that could affect index inclusion.
- Observe VCB’s price action and foreign trading volumes in the coming weeks to gauge sentiment.
- Follow quarterly earnings reports from affected tickers to assess fundamental support for valuations.