VN-Index Targets 1,850 Points After Holiday; Foreign Buying Returns
This Aveluro analysis covers TCB (Techcombank) on HOSE in the Banks sector. The classified event type is sector sentiment, with positive sentiment and a deterministic market-impact score of 4.0/10. Aveluro classifies this story as a positive catalyst in the stock's news coverage. Source coverage came from Tuổi Trẻ - Kinh doanh, classified as a primary/top-tier source.
Key Facts
Caveat: Not investment advice. · How Aveluro computed this: Aveluro combines extracted event facts, source credibility, ticker context, and market data. Scores are deterministic research signals, not recommendations.
Overview
Vietnamese brokerages are broadly optimistic that the VN-Index will continue its upward trajectory toward 1,840-1,850 points, following a 3.62% weekly gain before the National Day holiday. The rally is supported by a shift to foreign net buying of $37 million, though market breadth remains narrow with large caps like Vingroup (VIC) driving most of the index’s advance. The positive sentiment comes ahead of anticipated FTSE market-upgrade related inflows, which could add further momentum in September.
Key Facts
- VN-Index rose 64 points (3.62%) to 1,832.12 points in the week before the holiday.
- Foreign investors turned net buyers, purchasing $37 million worth of stocks, reversing the prior week’s net selling of $104 million.
- Foreign net buying on the whole market totaled VND 1,049 billion, with focus on TCB, FPT, VIC, VPB, and HPG.
- Vingroup (VIC) alone contributed 53 of the 64-point weekly gain in the VN-Index.
- Vietcap sees near-term resistance at 1,840-1,850, with support at 1,810-1,820.
- VDSC notes the index reclaimed its 20-week moving average (MA20) at 1,821 points, with next resistance at 1,860-1,890.
- An estimated $1.5 billion in passive FTSE-related inflows is expected to enter Vietnam from September 2026 to September 2027, with ~$150 million (10%) allocated in September 2026.
What Happened
In a post-holiday market note, several Vietnamese securities firms expressed confidence that the VN-Index will maintain its upward momentum, targeting the 1,840-1,850 zone. Vietcap highlighted stable uptrend signals, while VDSC pointed to the index reclaiming its 20-week moving average and broadening its lead above shorter-term MAs, suggesting potential to test 1,860-1,890.
However, Kafi Securities cautioned that momentum is slowing as gains depend heavily on large-cap stocks. The firm advises investors to hold leading stocks, avoid chasing at resistance, and deploy capital gradually on dips. BIDV Securities (BSC) echoed concerns about narrow breadth, noting that VIC alone accounted for 53 of the 64-point weekly rise, indicating that cash flow is rotating primarily through blue chips.
A positive development is the return of foreign net buying, which reversed a $104 million outflow the prior week. VDSC recorded net purchases of VND 1,049 billion across the market, concentrated in TCB, FPT, VIC, VPB, and HPG. The shift is seen as a sign of improving demand absorbing profit-taking pressure.
Market Context
Techcombank (TCB), listed on HOSE, closed at VND 33,400 on September 2, 2026. The stock was among the top foreign-buying targets last week, alongside FPT (VND 73,200), VIC (VND 236,000), VPB (VND 27,800), and HPG. The VN-Index’s recent advance has been driven by large caps, with foreign flows turning positive after a period of selling. The market’s ability to sustain gains will depend on whether participation broadens beyond a handful of blue chips, a key concern flagged by multiple brokerages.
Strategic Significance
For long-term investors, the return of foreign net buying and the anticipated FTSE upgrade-related inflows are significant structural catalysts. The estimated $1.5 billion in passive flows, spread over four phases from September 2026 to September 2027, could provide sustained support to large-cap stocks that meet FTSE criteria. However, as TPS analyst Lê Nhật Quang noted, the upgrade story must be supported by solid macroeconomic fundamentals to translate into a durable uptrend. For TCB and other banking stocks, continued foreign interest and improving market sentiment could support valuations, but narrow market breadth remains a risk if gains fail to broaden.
What to Watch
- Weekly foreign net buying/selling data to see if the $37 million inflow is sustained or a one-off reversal.
- VN-Index’s ability to break and hold above the 1,840-1,850 resistance zone, with support at 1,810-1,820.
- Trading volume trends: whether liquidity expands in line with index gains, as flagged by BSC.
- Any official announcements on FTSE Russell’s market upgrade timeline and the first phase of passive inflows.
- Q3 earnings reports from TCB and other banks, due in October, for fundamental confirmation of the rally.