Vietnam Foreign Selloff Hits VND 21 Trillion as STB, LPB Lead Bank Rebound

Overview

Foreign investors have net sold approximately VND 21 trillion of Vietnamese equities since the start of 2026, according to a market commentary from Chứng khoán SHS (SHS Securities). SHS senior market strategist Phan Tấn Nhật argues the VN-Index has formed a bottom around 1,680-1,700 points, with Sacombank (STB) and LPBank (LPB) among the bank stocks leading the rebound. The question for investors is whether the foreign selling trend has run its course.

Key Facts

• Foreign investors net sold about VND 21 trillion since the start of 2026, equivalent to roughly USD 840 million.
• SHS identifies a VN-Index bottom zone of 1,680-1,700 points, aligned with a trendline connecting the March and July lows.
• The 1,800-point level is flagged as strong resistance, coinciding with the 200-session moving average; a break opens the 1,850-point area.
• STB and LPB are named as bank stocks showing notable recovery after a sharp correction phase.
• Only about 20% of companies had reported or previewed Q3/2026 earnings at the time of the commentary.
• Total Vietnamese market capitalization is cited at roughly USD 412 billion, equal to about 80% of 2025 GDP.
• Banks carry the market’s lowest valuation, at a trailing P/E of 8.4x and P/B of 1.4x.

What Happened

In a market commentary reported by Vietnamese financial media, Phan Tấn Nhật, Senior Market Strategy Expert at SHS Securities, framed the current period as one of Q3/2026 earnings updates, with only around 20% of companies having disclosed results or preliminary figures. He noted that global indices corrected sharply the prior week, led by technology selling, while oil held above USD 110 per barrel. Domestically, he said deposit rates for six-month terms sit below 8% and are expected to stay lower after recent adjustments.

On the technical side, the commentary states that VN-Index formed a bottom around 1,680-1,700 points last week, matching a trendline through the March and July lows, and has climbed above the downtrend that began in early September. The recovery was attributed mainly to the Vingroup complex and a number of bank stocks after a steep correction, with STB and LPB specifically cited as showing meaningful rebounds. The article does not disclose the exact foreign net-sell figure by ticker, nor does it specify the measurement period beyond “since the start of the year.”

Market Context

STB trades on HOSE and closed at VND 67,600 on 2026-10-26, while HOSE-listed LPB closed at VND 39,400 the same day. Both are cited as recovery leaders within a banking sector that SHS describes as the cheapest part of the market at 8.4x trailing P/E and 1.4x P/B, well below securities (15.07x) and real estate (19.1x). The foreign outflow of roughly VND 21 trillion is the dominant overhang: it represents sustained mechanical supply that has pressured index-level performance even as domestic liquidity and low deposit rates support equities. SHS also notes VN30 is recovering toward its 200-session moving average near 1,950 points.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the central issue is whether foreign selling is valuation-driven or flow-driven. SHS’s own valuation work suggests banks are priced for pessimism relative to the broader market, which makes STB and LPB the most direct expression of any foreign-flow reversal. If the 1,680-1,700 bottom holds and foreign net selling decelerates, the bank cohort has the largest valuation gap to close. If outflows persist through the 1,800-point resistance test, the recovery remains a trading bounce rather than a trend change. The commentary also implies a rotation logic: with securities and real estate trading at premium multiples, foreign and domestic capital seeking value has few large-cap options outside banks.

What to Watch

• Weekly foreign net buy/sell totals on HOSE and HNX, to confirm whether the VND 21 trillion outflow trend is decelerating.
• Whether VN-Index clears the 1,800-point, 200-session moving average; failure keeps the 1,680-1,700 bottom as the line in the sand.
• Q3/2026 earnings releases from STB and LPB, including any foreign-ownership room or block-trade disclosures.
• Remaining Q3/2026 earnings disclosures from the roughly 80% of companies yet to report.
• SBV policy signals on deposit rates, given the sub-8% six-month rate environment cited by SHS.