ETF Rebalancing to Drive Major Flows in SSB, VHM, STB, FPT; VIC Faces Heavy Selling

Overview

Yuanta Securities forecasts that two ETFs will rebalance their portfolios in the upcoming period, triggering significant net buying in SSB, VHM, STB, FPT, MSN, HPG, and SSI, while VIC, VRE, VND, VJC, DXG, and NKG face net selling. The moves stem from index methodology changes, including the addition of SSB and the removal of FTS and CEO in one fund, and a sharp reduction in VIC’s weight in another.

Key Facts

• VanEck Vietnam ETF is projected to add SSB with an initial weight of 1.85%, equivalent to an estimated purchase of ~VND 253 billion.
• The same fund is expected to remove FTS and CEO due to free-float capitalization criteria, with estimated sell values of ~VND 63 billion and ~VND 48 billion, respectively.
• Total estimated net buying across the VanEck portfolio is VND 1,063.49 billion, while net selling is VND 1,017.05 billion.
• Xtrackers Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF (AUM VND 10,021 billion) will cut VIC’s weight from 28.07% to the 15% cap, implying a net sell of ~VND 1,310 billion (5.55 million shares).
• NKG is removed entirely from the Xtrackers portfolio due to liquidity violations; no new stocks are added.
• Combined, VHM is the largest net-buy target with ~VND 337.81 billion (4.63 million shares), followed by STB at VND 283.58 billion (3.76 million shares).
• SSB is expected to see demand for 14.78 million shares (VND 253 billion), making it the only new addition in this cycle.

What Happened

According to Yuanta’s projections, the VanEck Vietnam ETF will add SSB with a starting weight of 1.85%, while removing FTS and CEO for failing to meet free-float capitalization thresholds. The rebalancing is largely internal, as total buy and sell values are nearly balanced, indicating a portfolio restructuring rather than a significant net flow change.

In the Xtrackers Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF, the most notable change is the reduction of VIC’s weight from 28.07% to the 15% cap, a drop of 13.07 percentage points, equivalent to an estimated net sell of ~VND 1,310 billion. This is driven by the index’s maximum weight rule. The fund also removes NKG entirely due to liquidity violations, with no new additions. Proceeds from VIC’s reduction are expected to flow into VHM, STB, and FPT.

Market Context

SSB (SeABank, HOSE) closed at VND 17,850 on 2026-09-07, while VHM closed at VND 74,500. The rebalancing is set to affect liquidity and price volatility around the ATC session, particularly for stocks with large weight changes such as SSB, VIC, VHM, STB, and FPT. The Vietnamese stock market has seen increased ETF-driven flows in recent quarters, and this cycle is notable for its concentration in a single stock (VIC) in one fund.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the ETF rebalancing highlights the growing influence of passive flows on Vietnamese large-caps. The addition of SSB to the VanEck ETF signals improved free-float and liquidity metrics for the bank, potentially attracting further institutional interest. Conversely, VIC’s weight cap reflects index methodology constraints rather than a fundamental deterioration, but the forced selling may pressure the stock in the short term. The net buying in VHM, STB, and FPT underscores their strong liquidity and index eligibility, which could support valuations.

What to Watch

• Actual ETF rebalancing effective date and ATC session price movements for SSB, VIC, VHM, STB, and FPT.
• Post-rebalancing foreign ownership changes in SSB, as the new ETF weight may attract additional foreign inflows.
• Q3 2026 earnings reports for SSB, VHM, and STB to confirm fundamental support for the ETF-driven demand.
• Any index methodology updates from FTSE or STOXX that could affect future weight caps or eligibility.
• Market-wide liquidity data around the rebalancing date to assess the impact on the VN-Index.