PNJ Cuts 2026 Revenue Target, Forecasts Record VND 6,271B Loss

Overview

Phu Nhuan Jewelry (PNJ), listed on HOSE, proposed cutting its 2026 revenue target to VND 39,057B and forecast a record after-tax loss of VND 6,271B, reversing an earlier plan for VND 3,409B in profit. The revision, disclosed in documents for an extraordinary shareholders’ meeting on 21 October, centres on a VND 7,071B provision tied to the company’s product buyback policy and triggered a second consecutive floor session.

Key Facts

• PNJ closed at 28,600 VND on 29 September 2026, down 2,100 VND or 6.84%, its second straight floor session.
• More than 31 million PNJ shares were queued to sell at the floor price, equal to over 6% of the company’s listed share capital.
• The 2026 revenue target was cut from VND 48,660B to VND 39,057B.
• The 2026 profit plan was revised from a VND 3,409B gain to a VND 6,271B loss, with a VND 7,071B provision for buyback obligations.
• Excluding the provision, PNJ still expects roughly VND 801B in 2026 profit, about 77% below the original plan.
• Eight-month 2026 revenue reached VND 31,404B, up 39%, while after-tax profit fell 54% year on year to VND 668B.
• Foreign investors sold a net 1.1 million PNJ shares on 29 September, worth over VND 31.4B, after net selling 1.92 million shares on 28 September.

What Happened

PNJ’s board documents for the 21 October extraordinary general meeting propose lowering the 2026 revenue target to VND 39,057B from VND 48,660B and replacing the VND 3,409B profit plan with a forecast loss of VND 6,271B. The company attributes the swing to a VND 7,071B provision for potential losses under its product buyback policy, built on the assumption that customers may resell or exchange goods worth up to 80% of previously sold merchandise. PNJ states this is an estimate of a possible future obligation and does not mean all of that merchandise has been returned.

The market reaction was immediate. PNJ fell 6.84% to 28,600 VND on 29 September with only about 1.21 million shares matched, while sell orders at the floor price stacked up to more than 31 million shares and buyers largely stayed away. Over just over a week the share price has fallen VND 8,300, from 36,900 VND to 28,600 VND, wiping roughly VND 4,200B from market capitalisation, which now stands near VND 14,635B. Foreign investors net sold close to 1.1 million shares on 29 September and 1.92 million shares the previous session.

Market Context

PNJ trades on HOSE and is the sector’s most liquid listed jeweller, so the two-session floor run and the size of the queued sell book are notable for a large-cap consumer retail name. The stock has lost more than 22% in about a week, and the foreign selling on 28 and 29 September adds pressure on a counter that typically attracts offshore retail and institutional money. The move also comes alongside reported senior personnel changes and a restructuring of the company’s operating apparatus, which the filing links to the diamond-related incident.

Strategic Significance

The provision reframes PNJ’s buyback policy from a customer-service feature into a balance-sheet liability. If the 80% resale assumption is even directionally correct, the company’s gross margin structure on sold jewellery is weaker than reported results implied, and the VND 801B underlying profit figure for 2026 suggests the core business is still profitable but far smaller than the original plan. For long-term holders, the key question is whether the provision is a conservative one-off estimate or the first recognition of a recurring obligation that will keep weighing on earnings and cash flow.

What to Watch

• The extraordinary shareholders’ meeting on 21 October and whether investors approve the revised targets and provision.
• Any update on the size or methodology of the VND 7,071B provision, including whether the 80% resale assumption is revised.
• Third-quarter 2026 results, which will show whether the July-August loss of VND 61B widened.
• Foreign ownership and net-selling data on HOSE to gauge whether offshore outflows continue.
• Details of the senior personnel changes and organisational restructuring referenced alongside the diamond incident.