NCB (NVB) 9M2026 Profit Up 141% as Loans Surge 54.5%

Overview

Ngân hàng TMCP Quốc Dân (NCB, ticker NVB) reported 9M2026 pre-tax profit of approximately VND 1,574 billion, up 141% year on year, according to its Q3/2026 financial statements. Customer loans reached VND 150,661 billion at 30 September 2026, up 54.5% since end-2025, the fastest credit growth recorded in the Vietnamese banking system over the period.

Key Facts

• 9M2026 pre-tax profit: ~VND 1,574 billion, +141% YoY; Q3 alone ~VND 847 billion, +346% YoY and +66% QoQ.
• Net interest income 9M2026: VND 3,334 billion, +71% YoY, equal to about 85% of total operating income; Q3 net interest income VND 1,508 billion, +120% YoY.
• Customer loans at 30 September 2026: ~VND 150,661 billion, +54.5% versus end-2025.
• Total operating income 9M2026: ~VND 3,942 billion, +74% YoY; operating expenses ~VND 1,602 billion, +21%.
• Provision expense 9M2026: ~VND 766 billion, up more than 170% from ~VND 282 billion a year earlier; Q3 provision ~VND 370 billion versus ~VND 105 billion.
• Total assets at 30 September 2026: ~VND 238,221 billion, up ~VND 39,325 billion from end-Q2; other receivables rose from ~VND 3,346 billion to VND 29,088 billion in one quarter.
• Customer deposits at 30 September 2026: ~VND 185,184 billion, up VND 40,616 billion, or 28.1%, in a single quarter.

What Happened

The results, disclosed in NCB’s Q3/2026 financial statements, mark a sharp reversal from a large loss in 2024 and a near-breakeven 2025. Core banking activity drove the improvement: net interest income of VND 3,334 billion accounted for roughly 85% of total operating income, consistent with the rapid expansion of the loan book. Fee income also strengthened, with net service income of VND 386 billion, up nearly 140% year on year, and net foreign exchange income of about VND 131 billion versus nearly VND 79 billion a year earlier.

Cost discipline amplified the operating leverage. Operating expenses rose about 21% against a 74% increase in total operating income, lifting pre-tax profit before provisioning to VND 2,340 billion. Credit provisioning of roughly VND 766 billion then reduced pre-tax profit to VND 1,574 billion, meaning provisions absorbed close to 33% of pre-provision profit. The filing does not disclose the composition of the VND 29,088 billion other-receivables balance, which the bank does not explain in detail.

Market Context

NVB trades on the HNX and closed at VND 14,500 on 29 October 2026. The stock sits in the small-cap segment of the Vietnamese banking sector, where NCB has historically traded at a discount to larger HOSE-listed peers following its 2024 losses and restructuring. The 54.5% credit growth stands well above the sector’s typical annual pace and contrasts with the more moderate expansion reported by most Vietnamese banks in 2026, a divergence that has drawn attention to NVB’s funding and asset-quality profile.

Strategic Significance

The investment case rests on whether NCB’s earnings recovery is durable rather than a one-off rebound from a depressed base. The 141% profit growth is real, but it is funded by balance-sheet expansion at a pace that requires matching deposit growth, which the 28.1% quarterly rise in customer deposits partly provides. The more important test is asset quality: provisions more than doubled year on year and now consume a third of pre-provision profit, so the loan book’s seasoning over the next four to six quarters will determine whether the current earnings run-rate holds. The unexplained jump in other receivables is a governance and disclosure question that long-term holders should track alongside credit quality.

What to Watch

• Q4/2026 and full-year 2026 financial statements, including any restatement or explanation of the VND 29,088 billion other-receivables balance.
• NPL ratio and loan-loss coverage disclosures in the annual report, given provisions rose more than 170% YoY.
• Deposit growth versus credit growth in Q4/2026, to assess funding sustainability after the 28.1% quarterly deposit increase.
• Any State Bank of Vietnam credit-growth quota adjustment affecting NCB’s ability to sustain above-system loan expansion.
• Foreign-ownership and major-shareholder filings on HNX, relevant to NCB’s ongoing restructuring.