SSI Research: Vietnam Banks to Raise USD 5.4B as MBB, VPB, HDB Lead 2027 Credit Growth

Overview

SSI Research forecasts pre-tax profit growth for Vietnamese banks under its coverage at 15.4% in 2027, down from an estimated 19.5% in 2026, according to its newly published 2027 investment strategy report. System credit growth is projected at 16-17%, with MBBank (MBB), VPBank (VPB) and HDBank (HDB) expected to lead at 17.9% as eight banks prepare roughly USD 5.4B in capital raising.

Key Facts

• SSI Research projects sector pre-tax profit growth of 15.4% in 2027, versus 19.5% estimated for 2026.
• System credit growth is forecast at 16-17% in 2027; coverage banks are seen at 17.9%.
• MBB, VPB and HDB are named as likely leaders, supported by mandatory transfers of weak credit institutions.
• Eight banks are preparing to raise approximately USD 5.4B through deposits, certificates of deposit, bonds and offshore funding.
• The credit-deposit gap remained near VND 2.5 quadrillion in Q3 2026 despite narrowing.
• H1 2026 pre-tax profit for coverage banks rose 24%, while sector market capitalization fell about 4% from the start of the year.
• Credit demand is expected to concentrate in construction, infrastructure and related industries.

What Happened

SSI Research published its 2027 investment strategy report, arguing that Vietnamese banks are entering a growth phase marked by widening divergence. The analysts state that while credit demand should stay high to support GDP targets, funding pressure, net interest margin compression and deteriorating asset quality may cap profit expansion. Profit durability, they argue, will depend more on funding quality and risk management than on credit expansion alone.

The report notes that 2026 already showed a disconnect between operating performance and share prices: coverage banks grew pre-tax profit 24% in H1 2026 while sector market capitalization declined roughly 4% year-to-date. SSI attributes this to funding strain, as credit growth outpaced deposit growth, lifting interest rates and operating costs. The report identifies access to appropriately priced capital, rather than credit quotas, as the sector’s central constraint.

Market Context

MBB closed at VND 19,900 on 15 October 2026 on HOSE, VPB at VND 24,450 and HDB at VND 22,800, levels that reflect the sector’s flat-to-negative market capitalization trend despite double-digit earnings growth. The banking sector remains a core weight on the HOSE index, and SSI’s forecast of slower 2027 profit growth alongside sustained 16-17% credit expansion frames a market where earnings momentum and valuation re-rating have decoupled.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the report shifts the sector thesis from volume to funding franchise. Banks able to raise long-tenor deposits, issue certificates of deposit and bonds, and access offshore markets at reasonable cost should defend margins; those reliant on short-term deposits face compression. MBB, VPB and HDB carry an additional structural lever through mandatory transfers of weak institutions, which expand balance sheets and credit room but also demand capital and integration capacity. The USD 5.4B fundraising wave across eight banks will test investor appetite and could dilute near-term returns if pricing is aggressive.

What to Watch

• Q3 and Q4 2026 earnings releases for MBB, VPB and HDB, particularly net interest margin and bad-debt ratios.
• Details of each bank’s capital-raising plans, including bond and certificate of deposit issuance terms and any offshore funding.
• State Bank of Vietnam credit growth quotas and policy rate signals for 2027.
• Progress on mandatory transfers of weak credit institutions involving MBB, VPB and HDB.
• Monthly credit and deposit growth data to track whether the VND 2.5 quadrillion gap narrows.