Vietnam Airlines (HVN) Targets 2026 Net Profit of VND 510B Despite High Fuel Costs

Overview

Vietnam Airlines (HVN) has set a 2026 net profit target of VND 510 billion and consolidated revenue of VND 138,899 billion, representing 12% growth year-on-year, despite a sharp increase in jet fuel prices. The airline’s guidance reflects its resilience amid a 48% surge in average fuel costs, which could add VND 11,900 billion in expenses. The targets were presented at the annual general meeting on June 28.

Key Facts

• 2026 consolidated revenue target: VND 138,899 billion (+12% vs 2025).
• 2026 net profit target (consolidated): VND 510 billion; parent company profit: VND 101 billion.
• Jet fuel price assumption for H2 2026: average USD 120/barrel; full-year average USD 128.54/barrel (+48% vs 2025).
• Fuel cost increase could add VND 11,900 billion in expenses.
• Q1 2026 consolidated net profit reached a record ~VND 4,500 billion.
• 2026 passenger target: 27.73 million (+8.1%), including 9.8 million international passengers (+13.4%).
• New international routes launched in H1 2026: Amsterdam, Phuket, Colombo; increased frequencies to Singapore, Manila, Moscow, Kaohsiung, Melbourne, Sydney.

What Happened

At its annual general meeting on June 28, Vietnam Airlines (HVN) management presented a 2026 business plan targeting net profit of VND 510 billion and revenue of VND 138,899 billion. CEO Le Hong Ha noted that the airline faced severe cost pressure from rising jet fuel prices, which spiked above USD 200 per barrel at one point in April due to Middle East tensions, compared to an average of USD 86.5 in 2025. The company implemented measures such as optimizing flight networks and deferring non-essential costs.

Fuel prices have since moderated to USD 112-115 per barrel in June after US-Iran tensions eased. Based on an H2 average assumption of USD 120/barrel, the full-year average is estimated at USD 128.54, a 48% increase. This could add VND 11,900 billion in costs. Despite this, the airline remains optimistic about international passenger growth, targeting 9.8 million international passengers (+13.4%), supported by new routes to Amsterdam, Phuket, and Colombo, and increased frequencies on existing routes.

Market Context

HVN shares closed at VND 23,000 on June 27, down 0.86% with volume of 414,000 shares. The stock trades on HOSE. The airline sector is sensitive to fuel costs and geopolitical developments. Vietnam Airlines’ Q1 2026 profit was a record VND 4,500 billion, but the full-year target implies a sharp slowdown, reflecting the impact of fuel price volatility. The broader market has been cautious on aviation stocks due to rising input costs.

Strategic Significance

Vietnam Airlines’ ability to maintain profitability despite a 48% fuel cost increase demonstrates operational resilience and effective cost management. The focus on international route expansion, particularly to Europe and Asia, positions the airline to capture post-pandemic travel demand. However, the thin profit margin (0.37% net margin on revenue) highlights vulnerability to further fuel spikes. The company’s strategy of fleet renewal with next-generation aircraft remains a key priority to improve fuel efficiency and long-term competitiveness.

What to Watch

• Q2 2026 earnings release, expected in August, to assess whether fuel cost pressures are easing.
• Jet fuel price trends, particularly any further escalation in Middle East tensions.
• Passenger traffic data, especially international routes, to confirm demand recovery.
• Any updates on fleet renewal plans and financing arrangements.
• SBV policy changes affecting fuel import costs or foreign exchange rates.