Vietnam Rubber Group (GVR) Targets Record Revenue of VND 33 Trillion in 2025

Overview

Vietnam Rubber Group (GVR), the state-owned rubber giant, has set a record revenue target of nearly VND 33,000 billion for 2025, up 4% year-on-year. However, pre-tax profit is expected to decline slightly to VND 6,900 billion. The company forecasts average rubber prices to rise at least 5% this year and sees a structural supply deficit supporting long-term growth.

Key Facts

• GVR targets 2025 revenue of nearly VND 33,000 billion, a record high, up 4% YoY.
• Pre-tax profit target for 2025 is VND 6,900 billion, down slightly from 2024.
• Average rubber price forecast for 2025 is USD 2,200/tonne (approx. VND 57 million/tonne), up at least 5% YoY.
• Global rubber supply deficit was about 500,000 tonnes in 2024, potentially accumulating to 1.5-2 million tonnes by 2030.
• In Q1 2025, GVR recorded revenue of VND 8,850 billion and pre-tax profit of VND 2,960 billion, both up double-digit YoY.
• Rubber segment contributed nearly 84% of Q1 revenue; the rest came from industrial park real estate, wood processing, energy, and agriculture.
• GVR plans to restructure its portfolio over the next five years, including divesting from non-core companies and IPO-ing some large subsidiaries.

What Happened

At its annual general meeting on June 17, 2025, Vietnam Rubber Group (GVR) announced its 2025 business plan targeting record revenue of nearly VND 33,000 billion, a 4% increase from 2024. However, pre-tax profit is expected to decline slightly to VND 6,900 billion. Deputy General Director Tran Thanh Phung explained that the divergent trends are due to rising rubber prices, which are in a clear recovery cycle, offset by higher input costs from elevated energy prices amid Middle East conflicts.

Phung forecast average rubber prices to reach USD 2,200/tonne in 2025, up at least 5% from 2024, with potential upside of 10% in a positive scenario. He noted that the global rubber market is structurally undersupplied, with a deficit of about 500,000 tonnes in 2024, which could accumulate to 1.5-2 million tonnes by 2030. This supply-demand imbalance is expected to support long-term price appreciation, with prices potentially reaching USD 3,000-3,300/tonne by 2030.

Market Context

GVR shares closed at VND 35,300 on June 16, 2025, flat on the day with volume of 1.74 million shares. The stock has gained over 35% year-to-date, outperforming the VN-Index. GVR is listed on HOSE and is a constituent of the VN30 index, with a market capitalization of approximately VND 141,000 billion. The company is 96.77% state-owned and dominates the domestic rubber industry.

Strategic Significance

GVR’s record revenue target reflects the company’s confidence in the rubber price upcycle, driven by a structural global supply deficit. The company’s long-term strategy includes portfolio restructuring, with plans to divest non-core assets and IPO large subsidiaries to unlock value. This aligns with the government’s broader equitization agenda. GVR also aims to become the largest agricultural enterprise in Southeast Asia by market cap by 2045, targeting VND 400,000-600,000 billion. The rubber segment remains the core earnings driver, but diversification into industrial parks and energy provides additional growth avenues.

What to Watch

• Q2 2025 earnings release in August 2025 to confirm revenue and profit trends.
• Global rubber price movements, especially any deviation from the USD 2,200/tonne forecast.
• Progress on subsidiary IPOs and divestments, particularly for large, profitable units.
• Updates on the Middle East conflict and its impact on energy costs and GVR’s input expenses.
• Any changes in state ownership policy that could affect GVR’s capital structure.