P-Notes Return to Vietnam: Foreign Net Buying Surges in Blue Chips

Overview

Foreign investors returned to net buying on the Vietnamese stock market after a prolonged selling streak, with net purchases of VND 2,249.5 billion in the week ending August 4, 2026. The buying concentrated in blue-chip stocks, including FPT, VIC, CTG, and HPG, raising speculation about the return of P-Notes capital. This shift comes after two months of market decline, with the VN-Index falling 13% in July from its peak.

Key Facts

• Foreign investors net bought VND 2,249.5 billion in the week to August 4, 2026, with matching-order net buying of VND 1,592.6 billion.
• Top net-bought stocks included FPT, VIC, CTG, HPG, MBB, PNJ, FRT, VCB, VHM, and LPB.
• Foreign net buying followed a cumulative net selling of approximately VND 94,000 billion over a long period.
• On July 28, foreign investors recorded a sudden net buying session of VND 922 billion via matching orders on HOSE.
• In the six sessions up to August 4, foreign investors net bought in five sessions, totaling VND 3,400 billion (about USD 130 million).
• Year-to-date foreign net selling reached a record VND 92,280 billion (about USD 3.54 billion) through July.
• Stock prices have fallen 30-50% from their peaks, attracting speculative foreign capital.

What Happened

Foreign investors reversed their selling trend on the Vietnamese stock market, posting net buying of VND 2,249.5 billion in the week to August 4, 2026, according to exchange data. The buying was concentrated in information technology and basic resources sectors, with top picks including FPT, VIC, CTG, HPG, MBB, PNJ, FRT, VCB, VHM, and LPB. This shift occurred after two consecutive months of market decline, with the VN-Index dropping 13% in July from its peak.

MBS Securities noted that while ETF flows remain limited, the divergence in buying patterns strengthens the hypothesis of anonymous capital, possibly P-Notes. P-Notes, issued by global investment banks like Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, and Merrill Lynch, allow foreign investors to gain exposure to Vietnamese blue chips without direct registration, offering high anonymity and fast execution. Historically, P-Notes appear when markets are weak or have just bottomed, driving short-term rallies but often exiting quickly, causing sharp corrections.

Market Context

FPT (HOSE) closed at VND 70,800 on August 9, 2026, with a 17% price increase during the week. VIC (HOSE) closed at VND 212 on August 10, up 11% for the week, while HPG (HOSE) rose 12% and PNJ (HOSE) gained 26%. The VN-Index had fallen 13% in July, and stock prices were down 30-50% from their peaks, creating attractive valuations for speculative capital. The return of foreign net buying, particularly in blue chips, suggests a potential shift in market sentiment, though the sustainability of these flows remains uncertain.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the potential return of P-Notes capital signals a short-term trading opportunity but also carries risks of rapid outflows. P-Notes are known for their speculative nature, entering quickly and exiting decisively, which can lead to sharp market corrections. The concentration in blue chips like FPT and VIC suggests that these stocks may experience increased volatility. Investors should monitor whether this buying trend persists or if it is a temporary phenomenon, as historical patterns show P-Notes often retreat quickly after driving short-term gains.

What to Watch

• Continuation of foreign net buying in the coming weeks, particularly in blue-chip stocks.
• Any regulatory announcements or changes in foreign ownership limits that could affect P-Notes flows.
• Q2 earnings reports from key stocks like FPT, VIC, and CTG, which may influence foreign investor sentiment.
• Movement in the VN-Index and market liquidity, as P-Notes often appear in low-liquidity environments.
• Global market conditions and risk appetite, which could impact the flow of speculative capital into Vietnam.