Foreign Investors Return to Vietnam Stocks: P-Notes Footprint in FPT, VIC, HPG

Overview

Foreign investors have resumed net buying in the Vietnamese stock market after a record selling streak exceeding 92,000 billion dong, with purchases concentrated in blue-chip stocks such as FPT, VIC, and HPG. MB Securities (MBS) identifies this as a potential “footprint” of P-Notes (Participatory Notes) inflows, which historically target large-cap, high-liquidity stocks. The shift comes after two consecutive months of market declines, with prices down 30-50% from peaks.

Key Facts

• Foreign investors turned net buyers in late July through early August 2026, following a record net selling streak of over 92,000 billion dong.
• Net buying was strongest in the first three sessions of the week, with one session seeing disbursement worth over a trillion dong.
• Buying focused on blue-chip stocks including FPT, VIC, and HPG, matching the historical P-Notes footprint.
• ETF flows were minimal at approximately 0.12 million USD, contrasting with the active direct buying.
• The market had fallen for two consecutive months, with stock prices down 30-50% from their peaks in July.
• P-Notes are issued by global investment banks like Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, and Merrill Lynch.
• FPT closed at 70,800 dong, HPG at 22,000 dong, and VIC at 215,000 dong on 2026-08-07.

What Happened

According to a report by MB Securities (MBS), foreign investors have shown clear net buying signals in the Vietnamese stock market during the period from late July to the first week of August 2026. This follows a prolonged and record net selling phase that exceeded 92,000 billion dong. MBS notes that the buying was particularly strong in the first three sessions of the week, with one session recording disbursement of over a trillion dong.

The report highlights that the net buying was concentrated in pillar stocks, which aligns with the historical behavior of P-Notes. P-Notes are financial instruments created by global investment banks such as Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, and Merrill Lynch. These institutions accumulate large positions in high-capitalization, highly liquid stocks to create a representative portfolio, then issue P-Notes to foreign investors seeking anonymity and quick execution.

Market Context

FPT Corporation (HOSE: FPT) closed at 70,800 dong on 2026-08-07, while HPG (HOSE: HPG) closed at 22,000 dong and VIC (HOSE: VIC) at 215,000 dong. The broader Vietnamese market had experienced two consecutive months of declines, with many stocks falling 30-50% from their peaks, which MBS suggests attracted speculative foreign capital back. The divergence between active foreign buying and minimal ETF flows (~0.12 million USD) supports the hypothesis of anonymous P-Notes inflows.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the return of foreign net buying, particularly in blue-chips like FPT, VIC, and HPG, signals a potential shift in foreign sentiment. P-Notes inflows are often short-term and speculative, but their presence can provide liquidity and support for these large-cap stocks. The concentration in pillar stocks suggests that foreign investors are betting on a market rebound after the sharp correction. However, the reliance on P-Notes, which are anonymous and can exit quickly, introduces volatility risk. Investors should monitor whether this buying persists and whether it broadens beyond blue-chips.

What to Watch

• Sustained net buying by foreign investors in the coming weeks, especially in FPT, VIC, and HPG.
• Any increase in ETF flows, which would indicate broader foreign participation.
• Market performance and whether the VN-Index stabilizes or continues to recover.
• Regulatory announcements or changes that could affect P-Notes or foreign investment flows.
• Quarterly earnings reports from FPT, VIC, and HPG to assess fundamental support for the buying.