Vietnam SOE Capital Restructuring: CTG, DPM Face State Ownership Hikes

Overview

Vietnam’s Decision 40/2026/QD-TTg, issued on August 5, 2026, establishes criteria for restructuring state capital in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) for the 2026-2030 period. According to Mirae Asset Securities, the policy creates a clearer state ownership framework, potentially triggering a wave of capital increases or divestments. Key affected tickers include CTG (VietinBank), DPM (Đạm Phú Mỹ), and DDV, while VCB and BID may have room for external capital raising.

Key Facts

• Decision 40/2026/QD-TTg was issued on August 5, 2026, setting criteria for state capital restructuring in SOEs for 2026-2030.
• CTG’s state ownership is approximately 64.46%, below the 65% minimum threshold, requiring a plan to raise it.
• DPM’s state ownership via PetroVietnam is about 59.59%, below the 65% minimum for fertilizer producers.
• VCB and BID’s state ownership are both above 65%, so they face no pressure to increase state capital.
• DDV’s state ownership via Vinachem is around 64%, close to the threshold, but classification depends on revenue and output criteria.
• The policy could increase free-float and attract foreign capital for some SOEs.
• Mirae Asset expects mixed impacts across banking, fertilizer, aviation, energy, and port sectors.

What Happened

The Vietnamese government issued Decision 40/2026/QD-TTg on August 5, 2026, outlining criteria for classifying enterprises to implement state capital restructuring. The decision provides a basis for plans to maintain, increase, decrease, or divest state capital in SOEs and state-invested enterprises during 2026-2030. Mirae Asset Securities analyzed the policy’s implications, noting that it establishes a clearer state ownership framework and could initiate a five-year capital restructuring cycle.

Mirae Asset highlights that impacts will vary by company. For instance, CTG (VietinBank) currently has state ownership of about 64.46%, below the 65% threshold, so it must develop a plan to raise state capital. Similarly, DPM (Đạm Phú Mỹ) faces a potential ownership adjustment as PetroVietnam holds only 59.59%, below the 65% minimum for fertilizer companies. Conversely, VCB (Vietcombank) and BID (BIDV) have state ownership above 65%, giving them room to raise external capital if restructuring occurs.

Market Context

CTG trades on HOSE at VND 32,800 as of August 10, 2026. The banking sector is closely watched for capital adequacy and credit growth, and any state capital increase could support CTG’s CAR and expansion. DPM, also on HOSE, closed at VND 22,400, while VCB and BID closed at VND 60,300 and VND 39,500, respectively. The policy adds a new layer to SOE valuation, potentially affecting free-float and foreign ownership limits. The broader Vietnamese market has been focusing on policy-driven restructuring, and this decision could influence investor sentiment across state-linked sectors.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, Decision 40/2026/QD-TTg signals a more systematic approach to state capital management. CTG’s need to raise state ownership could lead to a capital increase, improving its capital ratios and credit growth capacity. DPM’s situation may prompt a similar adjustment, potentially affecting its ownership structure and strategic direction. Meanwhile, VCB and BID could leverage their above-threshold ownership to attract strategic investors or raise external capital, enhancing their competitiveness. The policy also supports the government’s broader goal of improving SOE efficiency and market attractiveness, which could benefit the entire market through increased free-float and foreign participation.

What to Watch

• Detailed implementation plans from CTG and DPM on raising state ownership, expected in upcoming board meetings or annual reports.
• Classification of DDV’s industry based on revenue and output criteria, which will determine if it must adjust ownership.
• Any announcements from VCB or BID regarding external capital raising, such as private placements or strategic investor deals.
• Q3 2026 earnings reports for affected tickers, which may reflect early impacts of restructuring.
• Further regulatory guidance from the government on the 2026-2030 capital restructuring roadmap.