BSR 2026 profit forecast to surge 3.9x on high crack spreads

Overview

Vietcap Securities has raised its 2026 net profit forecast for Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical Company (BSR) to 3.9 times the previous year’s level, citing a sharp rise in crack spreads and higher output. The bullish outlook reflects a tightening global refining product market, exacerbated by prolonged disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz. BSR, listed on HOSE, is poised to benefit significantly from these conditions.

Key Facts

• Vietcap forecasts BSR’s 2026 net profit after minority interest to surge 3.9x YoY.
• Average crack spreads are expected to rise 86% YoY in 2026.
• BSR’s output is projected to increase 2% YoY in 2026.
• In H1 2026, BSR’s net profit reached over VND 15,726 billion, up 12.6x YoY.
• Vietcap raised its 2026 crack spread forecast by 11-25% and 2027 forecast by 25%.
• Global refining product deficit is estimated at 3.9 million barrels per day in 2026, per IEA.
• BSR’s 2026 net profit is expected to be 137% of the 2022 level.

What Happened

Vietcap released a new analysis report on BSR, significantly upgrading its earnings outlook. The brokerage adjusted its crack spread assumptions upward for 2026 and 2027, reflecting supply disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and a widening global deficit of refined products. Vietcap also increased its output assumption for 2026-2030 by 1.4%.

The report highlights that BSR’s net profit after minority interest for 2026 is projected to be 3.9 times higher than the previous year, driven by an 86% YoY increase in average crack spreads and a 2% YoY rise in output. In the first half of 2026, BSR’s net profit already exceeded VND 15,726 billion, a 12.6-fold increase year-on-year. The company’s 2026 profit is expected to be 137% of its 2022 level, supported by higher crack spreads, 16% higher output than 2022, and inventory values 22% higher than at end-2021.

Market Context

BSR shares closed at VND 26,000 on August 17, 2026, on the HOSE. The stock has likely been supported by the improving earnings outlook, as global refining margins have surged. The IEA estimates a global refined product deficit of 3.9 million barrels per day in 2026, 122% of the 2022 shortfall, primarily due to prolonged disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz. Unlike 2022, the current disruption has a more direct impact on Asia, with Platts Singapore gasoline and diesel crack spreads in the first seven months of 2026 averaging 2.1x and 3.1x their year-ago levels, respectively.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, BSR’s earnings surge is not just a cyclical peak but reflects a structural tightening in the refining market. The damage to downstream infrastructure in the Middle East, with repair costs estimated at USD 24 billion by Rystad Energy, could take up to 36 months to fix, keeping refining capacity constrained even after crude production recovers. This suggests that high crack spreads may persist into 2027-2028, providing a longer-than-expected tailwind for BSR. However, Vietcap also forecasts a normalization in 2027, with net profit expected to decline 40% YoY to VND 12,000 billion, as crack spreads ease and BSR undergoes its sixth planned maintenance turnaround.

What to Watch

• BSR’s Q3 2026 earnings release to see if the profit momentum continues.
• Developments in the Strait of Hormuz and any progress on repair of downstream facilities.
• IEA monthly oil market reports for updates on the global refined product deficit.
• BSR’s maintenance schedule for 2027 and its impact on output.
• Any changes in Vietcap’s or other brokers’ forecasts for 2027 crack spreads.