Vietnam Interest Rates Seen Stable; ACB, MBB Face Mixed Outlook

Overview

At an investor conference on August 13, Dragon Capital CEO Le Anh Tuan projected that Vietnam’s interest rates will stabilize in the coming period, with no sudden spikes or sharp declines. His remarks come as deposit rates remain elevated, with 6-month terms peaking at 9.5% and 12-month rates around 9-9.2%. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has been actively injecting liquidity, which supports this view. Bank leaders from MB and ACB offered contrasting perspectives on rate direction, adding uncertainty for investors in banking stocks like ACB (HOSE) and MBB (HOSE).

Key Facts

• Dragon Capital CEO Le Anh Tuan forecasts interest rates will stabilize, unlikely to spike or drop sharply.
• Deposit rates for 6-month terms have peaked at 9.5% per year, with the system average at 7%.
• 12-month deposit rates are currently 9-9.2%, up from around 6% at the start of the year.
• SBV has injected over USD 18.6 billion via open market operations (OMO) to support liquidity.
• SBV also conducted FX swaps providing approximately USD 3 billion to the system.
• The gap between loans and deposits reached USD 89 billion by mid-year, up from USD 68 billion at end of last year.
• Vietnam needs about USD 1,460 billion in investment capital for 2026-2030 GDP growth of 10% per year.

What Happened

Speaking at an investor conference on August 13, Dragon Capital CEO Le Anh Tuan presented data showing that deposit rates remain high, with 6-month terms peaking at 9.5% and 12-month rates at 9-9.2%, up from around 6% earlier in the year. He noted that many banks have discrepancies between listed rates and actual deposit rates. Despite this, he argued that rates are unlikely to reach new highs because the SBV has been providing strong liquidity support, including OMO injections of over USD 18.6 billion and FX swaps of about USD 3 billion.

On the same day, Prime Minister Le Minh Hung met with the SBV and credit institutions, urging banks to cut costs, stabilize rates, and reduce lending rates to support businesses. Tuan also highlighted that with strong credit demand and a widening loan-deposit gap, a sudden sharp rate adjustment is unlikely; instead, rates may decline slowly.

Market Context

ACB closed at VND 22,150 on August 14, while MBB closed at VND 20,000. Both stocks are listed on HOSE. The banking sector has been under pressure from high deposit rates and tight liquidity, which squeeze net interest margins. The SBV’s liquidity support has helped stabilize interbank rates, but the loan-deposit gap remains wide, indicating ongoing funding challenges. The mixed rate outlook from bank leaders adds uncertainty for investors, as rate movements directly impact bank profitability and credit growth.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the interest rate trajectory is a critical driver for bank stocks. If rates stabilize as Dragon Capital predicts, banks may see improved margin stability, but the high cost of deposits could persist. The SBV’s proactive liquidity management suggests a supportive policy environment, but the widening loan-deposit gap indicates structural funding pressures. Banks like ACB and MBB will need to manage deposit costs and loan growth carefully. The government’s ambitious GDP growth target of 10% per year through 2030 implies substantial credit demand, which could support bank earnings if managed prudently.

What to Watch

• SBV’s next monetary policy actions, including further OMO or FX swap operations.
• Quarterly earnings reports from ACB and MBB for net interest margin trends.
• Deposit rate movements at major banks, especially for 6- and 12-month terms.
• Credit growth data and loan-deposit gap updates from the SBV.
• Any regulatory changes affecting LDR or short-term funding ratios.